How Does a Major Coin Discovery at Sea Effect Coin Prices - Odessy OMR

as a soft core medal/coin collector I'm curious about the discovery of
possibly $500 million in silver/gold coins on the existing market and how
marketable the discover coins are going to be. What is the market for this
stuff? Reads like something out of a Cussler novel I bought a some stock
but wonder how many collectrors are out there or do they melt it for
bullion?
check out the price for coins. Who's buying this stuff?
http://shipwreckstore.com/
http://shipwreck.net/pressreleases.html

BTW. about twenty years ago, I met Mel Fisher, accountant, chicken
farmer,treasure hunter, in a upscale bar in my town. He truly did look like
an accountat not so much a chicken farmer or treasure hunter.

A pirate's life for me
It was an exciting week for Odyssey Marine shareholders last week. On
Thursday, the company announced that it had made a major find, and on Friday
the stock shot up more than 80%.
Odyssey Marine describes itself as a company that engages in
"archeologically sensitive exploration and recovery of deep-water
shipwrecks." In other words, they're treasure hunters. The company uses a
combination of historical records and modern-day high-tech equipment to find
and search deep-water shipwrecks and recover all sorts of goodies from them.
As you might expect, this is a hit-driven business. Odyssey focuses
primarily on wrecks that the records show were carrying a significant amount
of valuable materials, since the costs of finding, exploring, and recovering
artifacts from these shipwrecks is so high. But for all the up-front
investment, there's never any guarantee about how much will actually be
found.
Last Thursday, those investments seemed to pay off in a big way. Odyssey's
find, code-named "Black Swan," reportedly contained 500,000 silver coins,
some gold coins, and some other potentially valuable artifacts. The company
has revealed that the silver coins could have a retail value between a few
hundred dollars and $4,000 each, and it has been reported elsewhere that the
likely median price could be $1,000 -- which would give the find a value of
$500 million or more.
It's important to remember that there are still a lot of question marks on
the find. Of course, the exact value of the coins is still unknown. Also,
claims are also sometimes made on these finds by governments -- on Odyssey's
HMS Sussex project, for instance, there is an agreement to split potential
findings with the British government. Additionally, even assuming a $500
million value for the find, it doesn't all go to the bottom line for
Odyssey. There will be significant costs associated with the identification
and restoration of the artifacts, and there will also be transactional costs
associated with actually selling what they've found.
Uncertainties aside, as I write this the market is valuing Odyssey at $396
million. That value would ostensibly include some probability-weighted value
of the Black Swan find, the value of Odyssey Marine's shipwreck operations
and future finds, and the potential value of Odyssey's planned themed
attractions. The company also confirmed today that it has entered into a
relationship with Disney (NYSE: DIS) (that's right, the Pirates of the
Caribbean Disney).
CAPS players have given Odyssey a rock-bottom one-star rating. Even after
the recent find, players such as CAPS All-Star Kinzo have questioned the
long-term potential of the stock. He shares:
How many shipwrecks are out there that will support this operation? This
recent find was indeed huge and potentially worth [hundreds] of millions.
However, I feel that future finds will most likely be few and far
in-between. THUMBS DOWN short-term.
There are a good number of bulls on the stock, though, and they include
se7ensparks, who spoke out in favor of the stock prior to the recent huge
find:
[Odyssey] has developed technology to enable it to explore for sunken
treasure. It has made arrangements with foreign governments to retrieve lost
treasure and will keep much of what it finds. ...
It's an unusual company doing an unusual type of business. But, then again,
there have been a tremendous number of sunken ships that have carried vast
wealth over the ages.
If the company makes a big score, this stock could take off and make for a
great Return On Investment. Or, as we in the pirate-sunken-treasure business
say, a great AARRRRRGGHH-O-I.
So far, 77 CAPS players have chimed in on Odyssey, and there's always room
for more. Take a stroll on over to CAPS and let the community know what you
think of the opportunity at Odyssey. And while you're at it, check out some
of the other five-sigma stocks mentioned above -- or a few of the other
4,500 stocks on CAPS.
Fool contributor Matt Koppenheffer enjoys his weekly statistical rendezvous
even more than he likes watching Computer and Big Triece mix it up on
Hollyhood. He does not own shares of any of the companies mentioned. Disney
is aMotley Fool Stock Advisor choice. Harris & Harris is aRule Breakers
selection. The Fool's disclosure policy has passed the mandatory drug
screening and is cleared to help you continue hitting home runs.

It probably will not move the market much. They will let the coins trickle
into the market, or so I hear.

"PC" wrote in message
...
It probably will not move the market much. They will let the coins
trickle into the market, or so I hear.


The coins will not even hit the market until all the untold dozens of
already pending lawsuits are settled. Stuff from the SS Central America did
not hit the market for over 10 years because of then pending lawsuits from
insurance companies that paid out on claims back in 1857.

On May 24, 3:36 am, "Sibirskmoneta" wrote:
"PC" wrote in message

...

It probably will not move the market much. They will let the coins
trickle into the market, or so I hear.

The coins will not even hit the market until all the untold dozens of
already pending lawsuits are settled. Stuff from the SS Central America did
not hit the market for over 10 years because of then pending lawsuits from
insurance companies that paid out on claims back in 1857.

I haven't checked on all the claims, but I don't believe any
prevailed. With the possible exception of specific coins found in
historic artifacts for which the descendants had specific photographic
evidence. That's one of the reasons the court cases on the Central
America were important.

As for flooding the market, it's unlikely. Even a couple of million $
worth of uncirculated coins will be absorbed every 2-3 months. But the
effects on the bullion markets have, I believe, already been felt.

As for other shipwrecks and their cargoes, there are literally 1000's
of known shipwrecks with over $1million aboard. Problem is one of
salvage requirements, cross-currents, etc.

Wish I had met Mel Fisher: one of the greats in treasure hunting. In
the future he may also be known for his innovations in shallow-water
recovery, although the sand scraping the coins did make them less
collectible numismatically.

Daniel B. Wheeler

On May 24, 12:09 pm, wrote:
On May 24, 3:36 am, "Sibirskmoneta" wrote:

"PC" wrote in message

...

It probably will not move the market much. They will let the coins
trickle into the market, or so I hear.

The coins will not even hit the market until all the untold dozens of
already pending lawsuits are settled. Stuff from the SS Central America did
not hit the market for over 10 years because of then pending lawsuits from
insurance companies that paid out on claims back in 1857.

I haven't checked on all the claims, but I don't believe any
prevailed. With the possible exception of specific coins found in
historic artifacts for which the descendants had specific photographic
evidence. That's one of the reasons the court cases on the Central
America were important.

As for flooding the market, it's unlikely. Even a couple of million $
worth of uncirculated coins will be absorbed every 2-3 months. But the
effects on the bullion markets have, I believe, already been felt.

As for other shipwrecks and their cargoes, there are literally 1000's
of known shipwrecks with over $1million aboard. Problem is one of
salvage requirements, cross-currents, etc.

Wish I had met Mel Fisher: one of the greats in treasure hunting. In
the future he may also be known for his innovations in shallow-water
recovery, although the sand scraping the coins did make them less
collectible numismatically.

Daniel B. Wheeler

I believe that it can be shown that hoards and treasure discoveries
have almost zero negative impact on prices. This is because hightened
availability will typically create more interest in a series. Perhaps
price will stall out for a few years and then resume upwards based
upon the larger collector base that was stimulated by the discovery.

Much also depends on what country the coins are from. If a massive
quantity of nice William & Mary or William III crowns were to come on
the market, it would be a godsend for collectors of English coins. If
the coins are of Louis XIV of France, double ditto. On the other
hand, cobs from Spanish America, while interesting, would probably be
met with lesser overall enthusiasm - while still being collectable.

I am hoping the coins are English, based upon the photo of the one
white tub that was open in press release photos. The coins on the top
of that tub looked round and well-made.

Further, to get silver crowns worth $1,000 per pop (one number
bantered by the press), well you simply have to have coins from a
strongly collected country.

oly

"PC" wrote in message
...
It probably will not move the market much. They will let the coins
trickle into the market, or so I hear.

I'm interested as a collector and secondly as an invester. I checked out
the items for sale on their website and I'm not buying anything, too
expensive. If the prices were lower maybe.

"Sibirskmoneta" wrote in message
...
The coins will not even hit the market until all the untold dozens of
already pending lawsuits are settled. Stuff from the SS Central America
did not hit the market for over 10 years because of then pending lawsuits
from insurance companies that paid out on claims back in 1857.

They're selling artifacts, including coins, from the SS Republic they
discovered recently I think

wrote in message
oups.com...
On May 24, 3:36 am, "Sibirskmoneta" wrote:
"PC" wrote in message
Wish I had met Mel Fisher: one of the greats in treasure hunting. In
the future he may also be known for his innovations in shallow-water
recovery, although the sand scraping the coins did make them less
collectible numismatically.

I met him probably twenty years ago in a hotel bar. He was several sheets
to wind, casually dressed and wearing a huge gold chain w/ some sort of
medallion suspended from it. He looked liked any other balding, on the
downside middle side, aged guy except for the chain/medallion. We got to
talking after I asked him about the chain/medallion. We bought each other
drinks. He told me he was in town to promote his road show for the Atocha
wreck. He gave me pass to the Atocha exhibit but I never did go.

I dunno, didn't he invent some sort suction device that destroyed the ocean
floor and damaged artifacts?

"oly" wrote in message
oups.com...
On May 24, 12:09 pm, wrote:
On May 24, 3:36 am, "Sibirskmoneta" wrote:
Daniel B. Wheeler

I believe that it can be shown that hoards and treasure discoveries
have almost zero negative impact on prices. This is because hightened
availability will typically create more interest in a series. Perhaps
price will stall out for a few years and then resume upwards based
upon the larger collector base that was stimulated by the discovery.

Much also depends on what country the coins are from. If a massive
quantity of nice William & Mary or William III crowns were to come on
the market, it would be a godsend for collectors of English coins. If
the coins are of Louis XIV of France, double ditto. On the other
hand, cobs from Spanish America, while interesting, would probably be
met with lesser overall enthusiasm - while still being collectable.

I am hoping the coins are English, based upon the photo of the one
white tub that was open in press release photos. The coins on the top
of that tub looked round and well-made.

Further, to get silver crowns worth $1,000 per pop (one number
bantered by the press), well you simply have to have coins from a
strongly collected country.

oly

Thanks for the informative post.

On May 24, 11:06 am, "Mike" wrote:
wrote in message

oups.com...

On May 24, 3:36 am, "Sibirskmoneta" wrote:
"PC" wrote in message
Wish I had met Mel Fisher: one of the greats in treasure hunting. In
the future he may also be known for his innovations in shallow-water
recovery, although the sand scraping the coins did make them less
collectible numismatically.

I met him probably twenty years ago in a hotel bar. He was several sheets
to wind, casually dressed and wearing a huge gold chain w/ some sort of
medallion suspended from it. He looked liked any other balding, on the
downside middle side, aged guy except for the chain/medallion. We got to
talking after I asked him about the chain/medallion. We bought each other
drinks. He told me he was in town to promote his road show for the Atocha
wreck. He gave me pass to the Atocha exhibit but I never did go.

I dunno, didn't he invent some sort suction device that destroyed the ocean
floor and damaged artifacts?

You missed one of the premier exhibits of all time IMO. I went to the
travel show when it appeared here in Portland, OR. Got to pick up the
77-pound silver ingot, but was surrounded by security dudes with hands
on weapons. Wasn't allowed near the golden belt set with emeralds. Got
to talk to some of the principal divers involved, who seemed surprised
to learn Mel raised chickens at one time.

If I remember correctly, he typically wore an 8 escudo gold piece from
the S.N.de Atocha. But I was much more interested in her sister ship,
the Santa Margarita, which had also been extensively salvaged by Pitt,
who was awarded a governorship of Pennsylvania by a grateful Queen of
England. The Santa Margarita had been salvaged at least 11 times by
different companies/salvors/countries before being re-found by Fisher.

Daniel B. Wheeler