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#1
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The next bubble?
David Hall, founder of the Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS) and regarded as one of the top numismatists of the twentieth century, says “we’re now experiencing a renaissance in coin investments and collecting.” http://countingpips.com/forex-news/2...-to-break-out/ JAM |
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#2
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The next bubble?
"Frank Galikanokus" wrote in message ... David Hall, founder of the Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS) and regarded as one of the top numismatists of the twentieth century, says "we're now experiencing a renaissance in coin investments and collecting." http://countingpips.com/forex-news/2...-to-break-out/ JAM "Experts say......." This implies that ALL experts would agree with the author and David Hall and it doesn't address the percentage of experts who would differ. No doubt some of the same "numismatic experts" were among those forecasting $2,000 gold and $50 silver by 2012. Personally, I always thought it was silly to grade and slab bullion coins. They're produced primarily as investment items that also happen to be attractive to coin collectors. Their intrinsic value should be much more apparent at any given time than will the premium demand for a PCGS PR69 versus a PCGS PR70. Having the Maria Theresa in mind, I always thought a bullion coin should either contain one single date or no date at all. There are certainly plenty of actual circulation coins to collect in the full range of conditions. So while David Hall may predict a great future for his "perfect grade" bullion coins he touts, I predict that with the increasing glut of bullion-type issues and the steadily rising value of gold and silver, the bottom will eventually fall out of this premium market. No expert and no charge. |
#3
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The next bubble?
On Apr 11, 7:03*pm, "Bremick" wrote:
"Frank Galikanokus" wrote in message ... David Hall, founder of the Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS) and regarded as one of the top numismatists of the twentieth century, says "we're now experiencing a renaissance in coin investments and collecting." http://countingpips.com/forex-news/2...-is-this-marke... JAM "Experts say......." * * * * * *This implies that ALL experts would agree with the author and David Hall and it doesn't address the percentage of experts who would differ. *No doubt some of the same "numismatic experts" were among those forecasting $2,000 gold and $50 silver by 2012. Personally, I always thought it was silly to grade and slab bullion coins.. They're produced primarily as investment items that also happen to be attractive to coin collectors. *Their intrinsic value should be much more apparent at any given time than will the premium demand for a PCGS PR69 versus a PCGS PR70. Having the Maria Theresa in mind, I always thought a bullion coin should either contain one single date or no date at all. *There are certainly plenty of actual circulation coins to collect in the full range of conditions. * So while David Hall may predict a great future for his "perfect grade" bullion coins he touts, I predict that with the increasing glut of bullion-type issues and the steadily rising value of gold and silver, the bottom will eventually fall out of this premium market. *No expert and no charge. I remember when said unspeakable unmentionable person used to have himself "paged" repeatedly at large coin shows at which he was not in attendance. That went on for years and years in the 1980s and 1990s. Phoney-baloney. All "numismatic" values are suspect today (especially "late" in any market-cycle), although a true dyed-in-the wool coin collector may have to "pay the piper" from time-to-time. Modern MS "70" in plastic is the greatest crock-of-****ae out there. Beware, BEware, BEWARE!!! oly |
#4
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The next bubble?
On Apr 11, 9:15*pm, oly wrote:
On Apr 11, 7:03*pm, "Bremick" wrote: "Frank Galikanokus" wrote in message ... David Hall, founder of the Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS) and regarded as one of the top numismatists of the twentieth century, says "we're now experiencing a renaissance in coin investments and collecting." http://countingpips.com/forex-news/2...-is-this-marke.... JAM "Experts say......." * * * * * *This implies that ALL experts would agree with the author and David Hall and it doesn't address the percentage of experts who would differ. *No doubt some of the same "numismatic experts" were among those forecasting $2,000 gold and $50 silver by 2012. Personally, I always thought it was silly to grade and slab bullion coins. They're produced primarily as investment items that also happen to be attractive to coin collectors. *Their intrinsic value should be much more apparent at any given time than will the premium demand for a PCGS PR69 versus a PCGS PR70. Having the Maria Theresa in mind, I always thought a bullion coin should either contain one single date or no date at all. *There are certainly plenty of actual circulation coins to collect in the full range of conditions. * So while David Hall may predict a great future for his "perfect grade" bullion coins he touts, I predict that with the increasing glut of bullion-type issues and the steadily rising value of gold and silver, the bottom will eventually fall out of this premium market. *No expert and no charge. I remember when said unspeakable unmentionable person used to have himself "paged" repeatedly at large coin shows at which he was not in attendance. *That went on for years and years in the 1980s and 1990s. Phoney-baloney. All "numismatic" values are suspect today (especially "late" in any market-cycle), although a true dyed-in-the wool coin collector may have to "pay the piper" from time-to-time. Modern MS "70" in plastic is the greatest crock-of-****ae out there. Beware, BEware, BEWARE!!! oly- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - And may I say, we are presently in a sort-of renaissance in numismatic books and printed information. Regretably, a lot of it buries the coin "history" behind the so-called "market information", but at least the knowledge is being recorded and the reader has the opportunity to separate the wheat from the chaff. We are in "good days" in that sense. oly |
#5
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The next bubble?
"oly" wrote in message ... Modern MS "70" in plastic is the greatest crock-of-****ae out there. Beware, BEware, BEWARE!!! oly Speaking of which (plus your finding of a 2012-D shield cent in change), can someone explain this? A recent Coin Age dealer's listing had a graded 2011-D Shield Cent, "MS-67 red," at about $80+ (may even have been $100+). Huh? I've not been paying close attention to availability and pricing news for modern cents for a year or two, but this one really surprised me. What's with the 2011-D cent going at such a whopping premium? Is this going to be a genuine key issue, or is it just another example of dealers hyping a numismatic molehill and inflating it to create a mountain-sized mirage that will fade away after the bubble bursts? |
#6
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The next bubble?
On Apr 12, 9:29*pm, "mazorj" wrote:
"oly" wrote in message ... Modern MS "70" in plastic is the greatest crock-of-****ae out there. Beware, BEware, BEWARE!!! oly Speaking of which (plus your finding of a 2012-D shield cent in change), can someone explain this? A recent Coin Age dealer's listing had a graded 2011-D Shield Cent, "MS-67 red," at about $80+ (may even have been $100+). Huh? *I've not been paying close attention to availability and pricing news for modern cents for a year or two, but this one really surprised me. What's with the 2011-D cent going at such a whopping premium? *Is this going to be a genuine key issue, or is it just another example of dealers hyping a numismatic molehill and inflating it to create a mountain-sized mirage that will fade away after the bubble bursts? It's the "rare-in-this-condition" slab game being played for the umpteenth time. A search on ebay will show that "66" is dross and "67" is great. oly |
#7
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The next bubble?
"oly" wrote in message ... On Apr 12, 9:29 pm, "mazorj" wrote: "oly" wrote in message ... Modern MS "70" in plastic is the greatest crock-of-****ae out there. Beware, BEware, BEWARE!!! oly Speaking of which (plus your finding of a 2012-D shield cent in change), can someone explain this? A recent Coin Age dealer's listing had a graded 2011-D Shield Cent, "MS-67 red," at about $80+ (may even have been $100+). Huh? I've not been paying close attention to availability and pricing news for modern cents for a year or two, but this one really surprised me. What's with the 2011-D cent going at such a whopping premium? Is this going to be a genuine key issue, or is it just another example of dealers hyping a numismatic molehill and inflating it to create a mountain-sized mirage that will fade away after the bubble bursts? It's the "rare-in-this-condition" slab game being played for the umpteenth time. A search on ebay will show that "66" is dross and "67" is great. oly ========================= Thanks. That was my first guess for it being an artificial marketing gimmick. I just didn't think that they could be playing the "graders' database scarcity" game so soon for a 2011 coin! Every time I hear about a "rare-in-this-condition" deal for modern, inexpensive pocket change, I wonder if there isn't some sharpster making a quick killing by carefully touching up 68s or 69s or even 70s to downgrade them to the hyped MS-67 (or whichever is the supposedly scarce entry). At those mark-ups, it's even cost-effective to buy Mint or even Proof sets to get the one coin you're going to touch up and downgrade. Most serious collectors are informed enough to be on the lookout for coins that have been touched up to improve their appearance or graded value; but touching up to downgrade a coin probably never registers as a possibility to be guarded against. |
#8
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The next bubble?
On Apr 13, 1:32*am, "mazorj" wrote:
"oly" wrote in message .... On Apr 12, 9:29 pm, "mazorj" wrote: "oly" wrote in message .... Modern MS "70" in plastic is the greatest crock-of-****ae out there. Beware, BEware, BEWARE!!! oly Speaking of which (plus your finding of a 2012-D shield cent in change), can someone explain this? A recent Coin Age dealer's listing had a graded 2011-D Shield Cent, "MS-67 red," at about $80+ (may even have been $100+). Huh? I've not been paying close attention to availability and pricing news for modern cents for a year or two, but this one really surprised me. What's with the 2011-D cent going at such a whopping premium? Is this going to be a genuine key issue, or is it just another example of dealers hyping a numismatic molehill and inflating it to create a mountain-sized mirage that will fade away after the bubble bursts? It's the "rare-in-this-condition" slab game being played for the umpteenth time. *A search on ebay will show that "66" is dross and "67" is great. *oly ========================= Thanks. *That was my first guess for it being an artificial marketing gimmick. *I just didn't think that they could be playing the "graders' database scarcity" game so soon for a 2011 coin! Every time I hear about a "rare-in-this-condition" deal for modern, inexpensive pocket change, I wonder if there isn't some sharpster making a quick killing by carefully touching up 68s or 69s or even 70s to downgrade them to the hyped MS-67 (or whichever is the supposedly scarce entry). *At those mark-ups, it's even cost-effective to buy Mint or even Proof sets to get the one coin you're going to touch up and downgrade. Most serious collectors are informed enough to be on the lookout for coins that have been touched up to improve their appearance or graded value; but touching up to downgrade a coin probably never registers as a possibility to be guarded against.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Well, no, in recent uncirculated cents, the big slabbers don't seem to do over MS 67. You dont have to ruin a higher MS coin, since they seemingly don't exist. Now, Proof 69 or Proof 70 cent, the slabbers will do, but they seem to be more "conservative" with the uncs because maybe they will still change condition their color or somehow otherwise alter after being slabbed. Something that might trigger a "guarantee" being honored at some future time. You can get slabbed MS 66 and Proof 69 much cheaper than the next ultra-high grade up, if you gotta own the coin in some form besides pocket change. One also has to say when the presses are churning out 1200 coins per minute and the cent coins get ejected into big tubs of coins, and then being hauled in huge huge bags nowadays, and finally put into counting and rolling machines at armoured car companies and banks, probably nothing comes out perfect. You might be the person who should buy the Whitman 'Red Book' specialized Guide book on Lincoln Cents, a good $20 book. I own most of this series, but not that one. oly |
#9
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The next bubble?
"mazorj" wrote in message ... "oly" wrote in message ... On Apr 12, 9:29 pm, "mazorj" wrote: "oly" wrote in message ... Modern MS "70" in plastic is the greatest crock-of-****ae out there. Beware, BEware, BEWARE!!! oly Speaking of which (plus your finding of a 2012-D shield cent in change), can someone explain this? A recent Coin Age dealer's listing had a graded 2011-D Shield Cent, "MS-67 red," at about $80+ (may even have been $100+). Huh? I've not been paying close attention to availability and pricing news for modern cents for a year or two, but this one really surprised me. What's with the 2011-D cent going at such a whopping premium? Is this going to be a genuine key issue, or is it just another example of dealers hyping a numismatic molehill and inflating it to create a mountain-sized mirage that will fade away after the bubble bursts? It's the "rare-in-this-condition" slab game being played for the umpteenth time. A search on ebay will show that "66" is dross and "67" is great. oly ========================= Thanks. That was my first guess for it being an artificial marketing gimmick. I just didn't think that they could be playing the "graders' database scarcity" game so soon for a 2011 coin! Every time I hear about a "rare-in-this-condition" deal for modern, inexpensive pocket change, I wonder if there isn't some sharpster making a quick killing by carefully touching up 68s or 69s or even 70s to downgrade them to the hyped MS-67 (or whichever is the supposedly scarce entry). At those mark-ups, it's even cost-effective to buy Mint or even Proof sets to get the one coin you're going to touch up and downgrade. Most serious collectors are informed enough to be on the lookout for coins that have been touched up to improve their appearance or graded value; but touching up to downgrade a coin probably never registers as a possibility to be guarded against. The real "rare-in-this-condition" coins today are golden dollar coins in VG-F condition. Don't be fooled by an artificially circulated one. |
#10
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The next bubble?
"oly" wrote in message ... On Apr 13, 1:32 am, "mazorj" wrote: "oly" wrote in message ... On Apr 12, 9:29 pm, "mazorj" wrote: "oly" wrote in message ... Modern MS "70" in plastic is the greatest crock-of-****ae out there. Beware, BEware, BEWARE!!! oly Speaking of which (plus your finding of a 2012-D shield cent in change), can someone explain this? A recent Coin Age dealer's listing had a graded 2011-D Shield Cent, "MS-67 red," at about $80+ (may even have been $100+). Huh? I've not been paying close attention to availability and pricing news for modern cents for a year or two, but this one really surprised me. What's with the 2011-D cent going at such a whopping premium? Is this going to be a genuine key issue, or is it just another example of dealers hyping a numismatic molehill and inflating it to create a mountain-sized mirage that will fade away after the bubble bursts? It's the "rare-in-this-condition" slab game being played for the umpteenth time. A search on ebay will show that "66" is dross and "67" is great. oly ========================= Thanks. That was my first guess for it being an artificial marketing gimmick. I just didn't think that they could be playing the "graders' database scarcity" game so soon for a 2011 coin! Every time I hear about a "rare-in-this-condition" deal for modern, inexpensive pocket change, I wonder if there isn't some sharpster making a quick killing by carefully touching up 68s or 69s or even 70s to downgrade them to the hyped MS-67 (or whichever is the supposedly scarce entry). At those mark-ups, it's even cost-effective to buy Mint or even Proof sets to get the one coin you're going to touch up and downgrade. Most serious collectors are informed enough to be on the lookout for coins that have been touched up to improve their appearance or graded value; but touching up to downgrade a coin probably never registers as a possibility to be guarded against.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - ======================== Well, no, in recent uncirculated cents, the big slabbers don't seem to do over MS 67. You dont have to ruin a higher MS coin, since they seemingly don't exist. Now, Proof 69 or Proof 70 cent, the slabbers will do, but they seem to be more "conservative" with the uncs because maybe they will still change condition their color or somehow otherwise alter after being slabbed. Something that might trigger a "guarantee" being honored at some future time. You can get slabbed MS 66 and Proof 69 much cheaper than the next ultra-high grade up, if you gotta own the coin in some form besides pocket change. One also has to say when the presses are churning out 1200 coins per minute and the cent coins get ejected into big tubs of coins, and then being hauled in huge huge bags nowadays, and finally put into counting and rolling machines at armoured car companies and banks, probably nothing comes out perfect. ========================== That's all true as far as you have stated it here; but there's no requirement that the coin to be "downgraded" was already slabbed. The distribution of grades among all coins of a given date and mint, in this case including both the scarce slabbed examples of graded 67s and the ones running in the wild as raw 66s, 67s, 68s and 69s, probably follows a bell curve. That means that while it's extremely unlikely that a 70 would last long in its perfect state, there are quite a few of the "dross 66 cents" out there, and then at least some surviving raw 68s and 69s to be had by careful searchers of pocket change or in the more target-rich form of Mint rolls and bags of the 2011-D cent. Probably not many, but at mark-ups like these, you don't need to downgrade a ton of them to make a good chunk of change by downgrading and flipping them over to unsophisticated buyers at the height of the artificial bubble. Bottom Line: My scenario is unlikely, I was just musing on a possble type of scam. But to reprise the classic squelch (usually voiced with a Brooklyn accent), "Hey, youse got a problem wid dat? Gedouttaheah! It *could* happen!" - mazorj Part of my roots are planted where "A Tree Grows in Brooklyn" |
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