Let the caucus circus begin!

On Fri, 04 Jan 2008 00:09:48 -0800, DeserTBoB
wrote:

I doubt Huckabee will survive long in the Primaries. He'll be way
behind in any of the New Hamsphire vote and I suspect Super-Tuesday
will kill him, if he isn't already dead in the water by then.
-Tom Sr. snip

Which means that unless Giuiliani can win, we'll get Romney. I'm sure
that works fine for Dems because the RR isn't likely to give him
enough support to keep even Hillary out of office.


Agreed. The stories I got out of Iowa tonight a

1.) Record youth turnout at the Dem caucuses, and record turnout by
all Democrats. That played well for Obama, not-so-hot for Edwards

He took 2nd in a virtual tie with third place Clinton. That Clinton
didn't finish first is notable, that Edwards did as well as she did is
a miracle.

But can he keep it up? He's got to do better than third place in at
least the next three primaries to even have a chance.

and badly for Clinton, who needed the middle-aged and older female vote
that just didn't coalesce for her, and who went for...get
this...Obama!

And Edwards. Of the three, Hillary got the smallest share of that
vote and ironically, it was a vote she was specially courting in Iowa.

I'll bet the Clinton camp is worried ****less and getting ready for a
major change in voter targeting.

The real worry for Hillary isn't Obama, proper...rather
it's that Edwards beat her, even if only by a nose. Lesson: Hillary's
whole campaign needs to be retooled..."experience" doesn't work
anymore, neither does her being a "change" agent.

She's not a "change" agent, she's a return to the past. Not that the
nineties is all that bad a past to return to . . .

Of course, this is
only IOWA...49 states left, not to mention "Tsunami Tuesday."

"Super" Tuesday. I'll bet Georgia will go for Obama and Huckabee.

Also,
don't EVER forget..."Comeback Kid" Clinton LOVES to run as an underdog
and so, naturally, does she. Bill has been a genius in working the
"underdog" spot in every election he's ever been in, and yes...he's
very active in Hillary's campaign strategy.

Makes sense.

2.) 60% of ALL Republican caucusers were self-styled "evangelicals."
If you follow the underlying Huckabee logic, he should have run the
table, but he didn't. Telling is that 14% of "evangelicals" went for
Romney! Enjoy it now, Huckleberry...America's not ready for yet
another "talk to God" guy in the White House...not to mention one who
resembles Gomer Pyle a bit too much for comfort.

But he's the Republican most likely to turn out the Evangelical vote,
just as Giuliani is the Repulican most likely to bleed votes off
Clinton.

3.) BIG news of the GOP: Guiliani only pulled 3%! 3%!!!! Even Ron
Paul beat him!

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

In hindsight it makes sense. The RR won't vote for Giuliani, the
midwest isn't likely to vote for a New Yorker and western independence
and liberty voters are ones Ron Paul appeals to.

So much for his "name recognition" and being
"America's mayor." Yoo hoo, Rootie Tootie...it's not working anymore.
Guiliani thinks that firing up late (in Florida, where he thinks all
the snowbird retirees from NYC will all flock to him)

And if they do?

he can just
assume the top slot from there into "Tsunami Tuesday," but that
strategy could be his immediate undoing.

He's done far to badly in Iowa. I'm not sure he can even be
considered a serious contender. Giuliani's biggest influence on this
election may end up being who he throws his support to by convention
time. The Dems nominate first and their nominee will have a lot of
influence on the Rep choice (unless one of them starts running away
with the race).

Mega-advantage: McCain, who
may take New Hampshire and has already announced he'll be going, not
to South Carolina, where the churchers will drool over Huckabee, but
Michigan, where he can bury Romney on his home turf. Should McCain
clean Romney's clock in MI, he can then kick Giuliani out of the #1
spot in the national polls...which Giuliani's been doing to himself
just in the last couple of weeks anyway...and thus out of the box on
"Tsunami Tuesday."

If, if, if. McCain can still bleed a few left of center votes from
the Dems but will the Fundies vote for him?

4.) Overall: BOTH parties are sick and tired of the status quo.

Major error there, man. The PARTIES are perfectly happy with the
status quo. It's the center that's sick and tired of it.

Bush
has destroyed the GOP machine that used to anoint their nominees prior
to ANY primaries. "Experience" also isn't playing well to GOP voters
anymore, just as it backfired on Hillary in Iowa. I mean, look at all
the "experience" that Dumbsfeld and Cheney have, and they, along with
their addled-brained boss, have almost tanked the whole country!

Bush was no more experienced than Huckabee or Edwards when he was
elected. His lack of knowledge about international issues was a major
criticism of him by Dems in 2000.

Same works against Hillary, whose refusal to abandon her Iraq position came
back to bite her in the fanny.

I understand it perfectly. She won't apologize because the mistake
wasn't hers. It was the adminisration's for providing faulty
information to the Congress in order to bypass reality and do what it
wanted.

Both Huckabee and Obama, for their
respective parties, represent a complete "throw the bums out"
attitude.

I don't see that with Hucakbee. The only "throw the bums out"
candidates I percieve are Obama, Edwards and Paul.

This, however, will ultimately benefit McCain on the GOP
side, but who gets the bow on the Dem side depends solely on how much
overhauling of Clinton gets done by "Tsunami Tuesday." Edwards showed
tonight that he can indeed cash in on the "change" platform, but he'd
better be prepared to take on Obama head to head, NOT Hillary.

I hate to make predictions 'cause I'm so often wrong, but I suspect a
pair of very interesting conventions. Both parties seem to be
splitting between candidates.

Romney is pretty. He's just not fast on his feet and isn't well
prepared to deal with his detractors.

Huckabee is undeniably a Bush Republican. Devout, liberal and
spendthrift, he's pure status quo and a likely GOP choice.

McCain is going to have to work hard and that will take a toll on his
health unless he has excellent staffing.

Early picks in NH: Obama for the Dems, McCain for the GOP, but
anything can happen in a week! Romney may unleash robotic Mormons
into every nook and cranny of the state this weekend, so who knows?

More likely Huckabee will try to flood the state with volunteers.

One thing's for sure...for McCain to win in NH, he's got to stop
hemorrhaging votes of the "indies" to Obama; else, Romney gets the
win.

Can't add anything to that. McCain offended his center by sucking up
to the RR. He has to make up for that and fast. He also needs to
give compelling arguments on issues other than Iraq. The voters are
looking at other positions as well.

He can do that now only by painting Obama as a "babe in the
woods" compared to his own long Senate career as an "outsider," and he
definitely has those credentials.

Yes, McCain has a streak of that western state independence and that's
something he may be able to capitalize on. Nobody seems yet to be
going after him, but they'll start if he does well in NH.

Swill

On Fri, 4 Jan 2008 08:40:18 -0800 (PST), trippin-2-8-track
wrote:

Everything "DeserTBob" is saying, is a complete falsehood.
"DeserTBob" is an unemployed illegal alien from the West Coast USA. snip

Right wingtard/paranoid delusional Charlie Nudo must say "bye bye"
now.

Turn his repetitive, cut-and-pasted harassment/lie message to:



....and



To learn more about this nut bag and his exploits on Usenet and eBay,
see:

http://nudowatch.blogspot.com

....or simply Google "Charlie Nudo" and be amazed!

On Fri, 04 Jan 2008 13:55:52 -0500, Governor Swill
wrote:

"Super" Tuesday. I'll bet Georgia will go for Obama and Huckabee. snip

Safe bet.

3.) BIG news of the GOP: Guiliani only pulled 3%! 3%!!!! Even Ron
Paul beat him!

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

If, if, if. McCain can still bleed a few left of center votes from
the Dems but will the Fundies vote for him? snip

Nope.


Bush was no more experienced than Huckabee or Edwards when he was
elected. His lack of knowledge about international issues was a major
criticism of him by Dems in 2000. snip

....which turned out to be the most correct prophecy in ANY election
cycle thus far.

Same works against Hillary, whose refusal to abandon her Iraq position came
back to bite her in the fanny.

I understand it perfectly. She won't apologize because the mistake
wasn't hers. It was the adminisration's for providing faulty
information to the Congress in order to bypass reality and do what it
wanted. snip

Well, WE know that. The idiots out there who vote don't get it. I
understand why she did what she did (along with Dianne Feinstein and
others)...but the 'tard vote (an ever-increasing slice of the American
populace) just aren't smart enough to put together Tinkertoys, let
alone the history of the Cheneyburton deception.

I hate to make predictions 'cause I'm so often wrong, but I suspect a
pair of very interesting conventions. Both parties seem to be
splitting between candidates. snip

The Dems can handle it; the GOP can't, since floor fights go against
their very existence and interrupts their goose stepping. A floor
fight at the GNC will rend the party into unrecoverable shards.

Huckabee is undeniably a Bush Republican. Devout, liberal and
spendthrift, he's pure status quo and a likely GOP choice. snip

Best concise description of Huckleberry yet. Thing is, how long will
it take the more moderate churchers to figure out that he's just "more
of the same" as Dubya?

On Fri, 4 Jan 2008 08:27:53 -0800 (PST), righttard Charlie "Noodles"
Nudo of Bear Run Dr., Drums, PA, this time posing as trippin-2-8-track
(only one left of 29 banned Google Groups
accounts) wrote:

On Jan 3, 3:11*pm, DeserTBoB wrote:
Here's my take at Iowa, although I'm not betting the farm on it...the
race is still wide open even as the caucuses open:

Democratic winner: *Clinton (or possibly Edwards)

Republican winner: *Huckabee

Out of contention by New Hampshi

Biden, Dodd, Richardson, Thompson, Paul, Hunter.

Rationale: *Clinton's been picking up the undecideds, and "soft"
support for Obama is eroding. *Edwards, though, has the wind of
momentum behind him going into caucus day. *Turnout is crucial for
Obama, and he might not get all he needs of first timers to put him
over, while ****ed off Maytag employees and union members for Edwards
have been working very hard, as have Hillary's people, to boost their
core turnout bases. *BIG negative for Obama: *"Oprahfest," which turns
out to have turned OFF as many potential supporters as it was supposed
to have turned ON. *Oprah's more polarizing than Hillary could ever
be, and fawning housefraus who love her are more than offset by others
who cannot STAND her.

The BIG battle in New Hampshire is a weird one fostered by New
Hampshire's wacky "open primary for independents only" system. *Now,
we have Obama fighting for votes directly against McCain, of all
people! *This could skew New Hampshire results to the point of
irrelevance as far as the party nominations go, but would give McCain
some badly needed fuel to burn into South Carolina, and could give
Obama a lift after a probable loss to Clinton (or Edwards) in Iowa.
Right now, Romney's the GOP favorite in New Hampshire, with Clinton
back to leading Obama...but that's only among party regulars. *Once
you throw the independents into the fray, things get murky, although
it does make McCain a contender again, if a weak one. *Huckabee won't
even come close in New Hampshire, and he's already in retrograde in
Iowa, but may win there anyway, due to the robotic churcher vote.
Those Episcopalians and Congregationalists in New England will have
nothing of some southern preacher in THEIR neck o' the woods...ayuh!

An Edwards win in Iowa could be parlayed into big news for him if he
takes South Carolina, where he's got the home state advantage. *The
GOP in SC is nothing but chaos, providing yet another opening for
McCain. *Romney and Giuliani are both sinking there, where they're
duking it out with Huckabee over the churchers. *A McCain win in SC
will do the greatest damage to Romney, who was hoping to take the
state in a cake walk after a big, paid-for win in New Hampshire.

The sad fact of our flawed system is that we'll lose two excellent
candidates, Joe Biden (D-DE) and Chris Dodd (D-CT). *Both are probably
the best qualified in foreign and defense policy to hold office, but
somehow never got what Nixon once called "the big bow" from the party
or the public. *You have to throw Richardson in there for
qualifications, too, but he's just plain unelectable. *The media's
probably as much to blame for this as is the DNC, but at least we'll
still have both of them in the Senate after the dust stops blowing. My
gut tells me Richardson will wind up in a Cabinet post (his forte)
shortly after the Democratic win in November.

Over on the other side, the GOP doesn't lose much, if anything.
Paul...tin foil hats, freemason demons *and black choppers.
Hunter...California Republican Assembly-favored *whack job and defense
contractor shill who probably won't even win reelection in his own
district. *Tancredo at least had the sense to get out before getting
steamrollered.

As far as the general goes, voters favor "any Democrat" over "any
Republican" by almost a 2/3 majority...big trouble for the GOP, AND
big trouble for them "down ticket" for the Congressional and Senate
races. *For once, whack job Pat Buchanan may be right in
prognosticating that the GOP will cede all control of the House for
many years to come. *I don't think the Dems can take cloture-proof
control of the Senate (maybe in the mid-terms), but they'll easily
pick up 5, and perhaps 6, seats. *With that, there will be enough
leverage against northeastern and western Republican senators to
provide a foil against right wing filibusters by wacky southerners and
Texans.

PREDICTION: *Dick Cheney will be indicted by Justice over "Plamegate"
some time in '08, and will do a Nixonian stonewall, citing "executive
privilege"...which he doesn't even have!



see what I mean ? disregard anything this "DeserTBob" says- he's
obviously in his own little world, and not living in reality

Hillary came in 3rd- she's a dead player !

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080104/ap_po/clinton_9 snip

Hey Noodles...bet your house on that. Please. I'd love to see you
run out into the cold. NEVER count the "Comeback Kids" out of ANY
race where they're behind. You, as usual, don't have the cranial
horsepower to review history. If you did, you'd hedge any bet on
Clinton being a "dead player." Even the biggest horse's ass in the
Repug Party, Newt the Galoot Gingrich, agrees with me on that, as do
some of your other heroes, like Pat Buchanan.

Either party's winner in Iowa has a statistically proven 75% chance of
getting the big nomination bow (but not the grand prize) at the
end...but that only holds true in a race where there's an incumbent
running on the other side. We haven't had a "wide open" race for the
presidency like this since 1952...and you'll remember Iowa going to
Estes Kefauver for the Dems, but Adlai Stevenson got the big bow...but
then again, you're too stupid to even know that. '60 doesn't count,
since Nixon was the "heir apparent" by virtue of having the VP slot
and lost anyway. He then went on to get his ass kicked in California
in '62 by Pat Brown, and then found "dirty tricks."

For the GOP, Iowa has screwed up twice, once with "Bush The Smarter"
in '80 (RayGun took the bow) and with Bob "The Wal-Mart Greeter" Dole
in '88 (and "Bush The Smarter" took THAT one!)

So go ahead and prognosticate Hillary as a "dead player." Bet your
house on it...please.

For more on the nut job I'm replying to, see:

http://nudowatch.blogspot.com

....or just Google "Charlie Nudo" and be amazed!

LONG VIEW: Brown Jr. will again run for governor of California once
we're rid of Der Gröpenfuehrer. And yes, had CAN do that
constitutionally (he ought to know...he's the AG now who kicked the
Armenian threat Poochigian to the curb last time) and early straw
polling shows him to be a front runner among Democratic Clubs in the
state. The Calif. Republican Assembly, a wrinkled gathering of far
right lunatics waning in statewide power, will try to run nut bag Tom
McClintock yet again and could possibly be run out of the state GOP
for all time should he lose...again. The CRA has polluted their state
offices with hard bitten right wingers, and they have NO moderates to
go up against Brown, thus giving him a big edge. Meanwhile, back at
the smoking tent, AHHHnuld has all but left the GOP in everything but
name only and has been openly fighting the Bushies, backing Brown's
suit against the Bush EPA over their interference (remember "states
right?" Wasn't that a REPUBLICAN theme??) over carbon emissions
mandates passed by the Legislature and championed by AHHHnuld.

On Fri, 04 Jan 2008 20:51:05 -0800, DeserTBoB
wrote:

Best concise description of Huckleberry yet. Thing is, how long will
it take the more moderate churchers to figure out that he's just "more
of the same" as Dubya?

They know that. That's why they like him.

Swill

On Jan 5, 4:29*am, Governor Swill wrote:
On Fri, 04 Jan 2008 20:51:05 -0800, DeserTBoB
wrote:

Best concise description of Huckleberry yet. *Thing is, how long will
it take the more moderate churchers to figure out that he's just "more
of the same" as Dubya?

They know that. *That's why they like him.

Swill



looks like another Republican in the White House in 2009...

Hillary is toast, and there's no way Obama will ever beat a
Republican, no matter who it is. Notice how left-wing fringer
DeserTBob is against Obama- because DeserTBob is a racist- like all
the other liberals are

On Sat, 05 Jan 2008 04:29:57 -0500, Governor Swill
wrote:

On Fri, 04 Jan 2008 20:51:05 -0800, DeserTBoB
wrote:

Best concise description of Huckleberry yet. Thing is, how long will
it take the more moderate churchers to figure out that he's just "more
of the same" as Dubya?

They know that. That's why they like him. snip

The righttards in trailers, yes...but the ones closer to the political
center, the "mainline" congregations, have been vehemently opposed to
the war and all of Bush's antics for quite some time. Many of these
(such as well-off Episcopalians and the like) went for Bush based on
greed two times. Will they make the same choice with Huckabee, even
though he's got no credible record of prosperity (AND isn't the rabid
tax cutter that such a constituency wants) when they have Mitt to
promise them all that business acumen (warranted or not) to keep them
rolling in dough? Downscale economically,
rightward-learning-but-still centrist church goers may perceive
Huckabee as a threat launched from the Southern Baptists. You
watch...those Congregationalists and Episcopalians in New Hampshire
will have NOTHING to do with Huckabee, even if he floods the state
with robotic church nuts to walk precincts.

On another front, the news was all over the nation's front pages this
morning...we're poised for the FOURTH "Dubya Recession"...prime
mortgages are melting down, employment is drying up, the dollars is
sliding further, aided by the Chinese. All of the sudden, I hear,
"It's the economy, stupid!" which kicked "Bush The Smarter" into the
political scrap heap in '92. Could this be the remodeling job that
Clinton needs to beat Obama, or will Iraq and "change" trump the
economic message this time out?

On Sat, 5 Jan 2008 05:16:12 -0800 (PST), Charles M. Nudo, Jr., Drums,
PA, posing as trippin-2-8-track (the last of
his 29 Google Groups accounts not to be banned) wrote:

looks like another Republican in the White House in 2009...

Hillary is toast, and there's no way Obama will ever beat a
Republican, no matter who it is.snip

And you base this on what rationale...or are you just basing that on
those always-present voices in your empty head? You should listen to
your wife, Cheryl..."TAKE YA PILLZ, CHOLLY!"

Notice how left-wing fringer
DeserTBob is against Obama- because DeserTBob is a racist- like all
the other liberals are snip

Your mental illness is in full bloom again, just like it is every
winter, Noodles! You really do need institutionalization.

The sad fact of our flawed system
http://www.slate.com/id/2181008/

On Jan 5, 7:29*pm, "William W Western"
wrote:
The sad fact of our flawed system

* * * * *http://www.slate.com/id/2181008/



by the looks of it, either Hillary or Obama will get the nom.-

I don't believe either will win.

There's still a majority of whites in this country- and also a lot a
racism under the rug and in the closet- those people will come out
and vote against Obama, just to vote against him.

Same goes for Hillary- although things have changed some, sexist/male
chauvinism attitudes are still alive and well in politics today.

The problem these 2 Dems made, is trying to out-socialize each other
with "give-aways" in the debates, playing down to
the least common denominator in society.

Most of those people, don't vote- even if you register them.