The Survival Rate of Books

Hello,

Would really appreciate your collective assistance in a matter of some
importance to me. Has there ever been a study on how long the _average_
hard cover book survives (the DW is not of concern here, only the
preservation of the book)? I would like to be able to estimate how many
books of a particular run of, say, 30,000 books may still be in existence
after a given number of years.

Thanks for your help.

Jerry

"Books are the soul of civilization, the high art of humanity." -JW, Janitor
Emeritus, Harpers Farm Books

I am not certain that the following resource contains the
answer, but it may be helpful. It is the on line version of
the Abbey Newletter from 1981 to present, dealing with
preservation of library and archival materials:

http://palimpsest.stanford.edu/byorg.../an/index.html


Francis A. Miniter


HFB wrote:
Hello,

Would really appreciate your collective assistance in a matter of some
importance to me. Has there ever been a study on how long the _average_
hard cover book survives (the DW is not of concern here, only the
preservation of the book)? I would like to be able to estimate how many
books of a particular run of, say, 30,000 books may still be in existence
after a given number of years.

Thanks for your help.

Jerry

"Books are the soul of civilization, the high art of humanity." -JW, Janitor
Emeritus, Harpers Farm Books

"HFB" wrote in message
...
Hello,

Would really appreciate your collective assistance in a matter of some
importance to me. Has there ever been a study on how long the _average_
hard cover book survives (the DW is not of concern here, only the
preservation of the book)? I would like to be able to estimate how many
books of a particular run of, say, 30,000 books may still be in existence
after a given number of years.

Thanks for your help.

Jerry

"Books are the soul of civilization, the high art of humanity." -JW,
Janitor
Emeritus, Harpers Farm Books

After running your figure of 30,000 books through my estimation of books
still in circulation super computer it has come up with a "estimated figure"
of 1268.45. I hope this is of some help.

Diane

"Diane" wrote in message
...

"HFB" wrote in message
...
Hello,

Would really appreciate your collective assistance in a matter of some
importance to me. Has there ever been a study on how long the _average_
hard cover book survives (the DW is not of concern here, only the
preservation of the book)? I would like to be able to estimate how many
books of a particular run of, say, 30,000 books may still be in
existence
after a given number of years.

Thanks for your help.

Jerry

"Books are the soul of civilization, the high art of humanity." -JW,
Janitor
Emeritus, Harpers Farm Books

After running your figure of 30,000 books through my estimation of books
still in circulation super computer it has come up with a "estimated
figure"
of 1268.45. I hope this is of some help.

Diane

Forgot to mention the figure of 1268.45. is the number of books left in
circulation out of 30,000 after 26 years 125 days and 7 hours. Sorry I can't
be more precise.

Best regards
Diane

Hi,

Thank you for your responses, especially to Diane for applying her super
computer to the problem (took off her shoes to double her computing
capacity, I believe).

I certainly disagree with the suggestion of Mr. Adams that the answer to my
question wouldn't be "of much use to anyone anyway." Actually, it is of
vital importance to anyone who collects or sells books. It concerns the
rate at which books become scarce.

Let's assume that somewhere between 80-95% of all books are, on average
(note the word "average") are destroyed each year. A rather pedestrian
publication might have a survival rate of 80% per year. At this rate, after
100 years, .000006 books would remain--in other words there would be none
left. But, if it were a Shakespeare in a leather binding, the survival rate
might be 95% and there could be 178 copies surviving after 100 years.

This information, even though it is based on "gestimates" can help the
collector in deciding what to collect, or help the bookseller in pricing a
book where there might not be any guidance from the "experts" or on-line
venues. Even though I am fairly confident in the 80-95% survival rate
range, I thought there might be a published study to add a little authority
to this.

Anyone have any further information about this or cogent (note the word
cogent) comments?

Thanks,

Jerry


"HFB" wrote in message
...
Hello,

Would really appreciate your collective assistance in a matter of some
importance to me. Has there ever been a study on how long the _average_
hard cover book survives (the DW is not of concern here, only the
preservation of the book)? I would like to be able to estimate how many
books of a particular run of, say, 30,000 books may still be in existence
after a given number of years.

Thanks for your help.

Jerry

"Books are the soul of civilization, the high art of humanity." -JW,
Janitor
Emeritus, Harpers Farm Books

In article ,
(HFB) wrote:

Let's assume that somewhere between 80-95% of all books are, on average
(note the word "average") are destroyed each year. A rather pedestrian
publication might have a survival rate of 80% per year.

Maybe I'm being obtuse, but I don't follow you here. If 80-95% are being
destroyed (an extreme overestimation IWHT), shouldn't the survival rate be
more like 5-20%?

Even though I am fairly confident in the 80-95% survival rate
range, I thought there might be a published study to add a little
authority
to this.

As suggested elsewhere in the thread, this would be an impossible study to
make because there is no way to track how many copies of a given book
survive (and in some cases no record of how many were produced in the
first place).

I suppose one could argue that in the case of an extremely rare (I should
say "perceived as rare" to be consistent with my own argument!) and
valuable book it is unlikely that /many/ copies will exist unknown in
private hands, because owners at some point will have been tempted to sell
them, or they will have been in private libraries impressive enough to be
formally catalogued.

However, in the case of these very rare books it would only take a few
unknown copies to drastically alter the survival rate. Imagine a book of
which 50 copies were printed in 1604. Three survive in libraries. Survival
rate according to our study: 6% over 400 years. But a further two - just
two copies - are languishing unrecognised in the homes of proverbial
little old ladies. Real survival rate: 10% over 400 years. That's a big
difference.

As for deciding what to collect or deal in, it seems to me that survival
rate - if it could be known - is only useful insofar as it affects
commonness in the marketplace, and there are easier and more reliable ways
to determine that.

"michael adams" wrote in message ...
"HFB" wrote in message
...
Hi,

Thank you for your responses, especially to Diane for applying her super
computer to the problem (took off her shoes to double her computing
capacity, I believe).

I certainly disagree with the suggestion of Mr. Adams that the answer to
my
question wouldn't be "of much use to anyone anyway." Actually, it is of
vital importance to anyone who collects or sells books. It concerns the
rate at which books become scarce.



Let's assume that somewhere between 80-95% of all books are, on average
(note the word "average") are destroyed each year. A rather pedestrian
publication might have a survival rate of 80% per year. At this rate,
after
100 years, .000006 books would remain--in other words there would be none
left. But, if it were a Shakespeare in a leather binding, the survival
rate
might be 95% and there could be 178 copies surviving after 100 years.

This information, even though it is based on "gestimates" can help the
collector in deciding what to collect,

...

What decides the collector on what to collect is what's currently
available in the price range he can afford. The books on offer by
dealers and auction houses. That's what determines scarcity, the
number of copies in circulation on the market. The percieved scarcity.
So that if a thousand copies of a book were held in Institutional
Libraries and there were only five in private hands then that book
could be regarded as very scarce.

Not some half-baked guesstimate. I've never heard such nonsense
in my life.

...

or help the bookseller in pricing a
book where there might not be any guidance from the "experts" or on-line
venues.

...

Booksellers price their books - both when buying and selling according
to their judgement of what they percieve to be the demand for those books.
Itself based on fashion and percieved rather than necessarily actual
scarcity. If they judge wrong then they go out of business.

...

Even though I am fairly confident in the 80-95% survival rate

...

Oh are you really? And how exactly did you arrive at that figure?

...


range, I thought there might be a published study to add a little
authority
to this.

Anyone have any further information about this or cogent (note the word
cogent) comments?

...

Quite clearly you're incapable, for some reason best known to yourself
of understandng the most salient point. Which is that the percieved
scarcity or otherwise of books depends on the number of such books in
circulation. Not on the number



michael adams
There are as has been stated above far too many variables. Your
question is of the 'how long is a piece of string' variety.

Some of the variables that go into the survival of a book include.

1. How collectible was the book/author at time of publication?
Books that are recognized as collectible immediately will always be
available on the market (perhaps at a premium) whereas books by
authors who attain collectible status later will be scarcer. Compare
first editions of Dan Brown's first book to the value of the first
book by Jasper Fforde.. both very collectible but widely differing
prices.

2. Was the book or author collected by libraries?

3. Was the book or author RETAINED by libraries? Did his popularity
continue or were the books 'discarded'?

4. How large was the book? Many people speculate that folio volumes
survive in greater numbers because people don't like to throw away big
pretty books?

5. Was there a warehouse stash somewhere? Sometimes huge lots of a
formerly rare books appear on the market because somebody found boxes
and boxes of them. The converse of this are the instances where
book/publishers/distributors warehouses were flooded, burned, bombed,
etc.

6. Was the book remaindered or pulped by the publisher?

7. How well was the book distributed? Many copies in many places
will survive better.

8. How well was the book made?

9. Did the author's father buy up all copies of the first printing
and store them in his garage, refusing to sell them. (Yes, in the
case of one hypermodern mystery this is the cause of the 'rarity' of
the book.).

These are just off the top of my head factors that need to be
included... there are certainly many more.

Any formula will be too generic to be applied in specific instances,
any specific history will be too specialized to apply generally....

David Holloway, Bookseller

(I think that John Carter treats this in his TASTE & TECHNIQUE IN BOOK
COLLECTING, but of course things have changed since then).

There are also censuses of at least a few famous books that can be
consulted...

Gutenberg Bible,
Shakespeare First Folio
Galileo's most famous book on astronomy.

I think that all that has been said about what drives collectibility,
perceived scarcity etc. is true, but it doesn't mean that the original
poster's question is meaningless. It would be one more piece of information
to add to a pile of other information, with no one piece sufficient all by
itself. To me, at least, it is interesting for its own sake, regardless of
its business implications.

It does seem difficult to imagine the perfect formula, but that does not
mean that no formula could possibly mean anything. I agree that the true
extant copies would be impossible to get at in most cases, but if one tried
instead to model the number of known copies this could be approached. This
would have to be some combination of copies in public collections plus
number of copies for sale over a period of time. A point missed by many
seems to be that a model like this takes a bunch of examples and uses them
to understand what may be typical. A weird fate for a single edition in the
past would be overwhelmed by other data and be fairly irrelevant when all
data are in. It's possible too that the study is more feasible for some
kinds of books than others, so some other objections may cease to apply to
the more limited objective.

I don't agree that, because it can't be perfectly precise, it is silly to
even think about. But then I'm a statistician, and my whole profession is
about handling imprecision sufficiently to learn something.

- Todd T.

"hollowayd" wrote in message
om...
"michael adams" wrote in message
...
"HFB" wrote in message
...
Hi,

Thank you for your responses, especially to Diane for applying her
super
computer to the problem (took off her shoes to double her computing
capacity, I believe).

I certainly disagree with the suggestion of Mr. Adams that the answer
to
my
question wouldn't be "of much use to anyone anyway." Actually, it is
of
vital importance to anyone who collects or sells books. It concerns
the
rate at which books become scarce.



Let's assume that somewhere between 80-95% of all books are, on
average
(note the word "average") are destroyed each year. A rather pedestrian
publication might have a survival rate of 80% per year. At this rate,
after
100 years, .000006 books would remain--in other words there would be
none
left. But, if it were a Shakespeare in a leather binding, the
survival
rate
might be 95% and there could be 178 copies surviving after 100 years.

This information, even though it is based on "gestimates" can help the
collector in deciding what to collect,

...

What decides the collector on what to collect is what's currently
available in the price range he can afford. The books on offer by
dealers and auction houses. That's what determines scarcity, the
number of copies in circulation on the market. The percieved scarcity.
So that if a thousand copies of a book were held in Institutional
Libraries and there were only five in private hands then that book
could be regarded as very scarce.

Not some half-baked guesstimate. I've never heard such nonsense
in my life.

...

or help the bookseller in pricing a
book where there might not be any guidance from the "experts" or
on-line
venues.

...

Booksellers price their books - both when buying and selling according
to their judgement of what they percieve to be the demand for those
books.
Itself based on fashion and percieved rather than necessarily actual
scarcity. If they judge wrong then they go out of business.

...

Even though I am fairly confident in the 80-95% survival rate

...

Oh are you really? And how exactly did you arrive at that figure?

...


range, I thought there might be a published study to add a little
authority
to this.

Anyone have any further information about this or cogent (note the
word
cogent) comments?

...

Quite clearly you're incapable, for some reason best known to yourself
of understandng the most salient point. Which is that the percieved
scarcity or otherwise of books depends on the number of such books in
circulation. Not on the number



michael adams
There are as has been stated above far too many variables. Your
question is of the 'how long is a piece of string' variety.

Some of the variables that go into the survival of a book include.

1. How collectible was the book/author at time of publication?
Books that are recognized as collectible immediately will always be
available on the market (perhaps at a premium) whereas books by
authors who attain collectible status later will be scarcer. Compare
first editions of Dan Brown's first book to the value of the first
book by Jasper Fforde.. both very collectible but widely differing
prices.

2. Was the book or author collected by libraries?

3. Was the book or author RETAINED by libraries? Did his popularity
continue or were the books 'discarded'?

4. How large was the book? Many people speculate that folio volumes
survive in greater numbers because people don't like to throw away big
pretty books?

5. Was there a warehouse stash somewhere? Sometimes huge lots of a
formerly rare books appear on the market because somebody found boxes
and boxes of them. The converse of this are the instances where
book/publishers/distributors warehouses were flooded, burned, bombed,
etc.

6. Was the book remaindered or pulped by the publisher?

7. How well was the book distributed? Many copies in many places
will survive better.

8. How well was the book made?

9. Did the author's father buy up all copies of the first printing
and store them in his garage, refusing to sell them. (Yes, in the
case of one hypermodern mystery this is the cause of the 'rarity' of
the book.).

These are just off the top of my head factors that need to be
included... there are certainly many more.

Any formula will be too generic to be applied in specific instances,
any specific history will be too specialized to apply generally....

David Holloway, Bookseller

(I think that John Carter treats this in his TASTE & TECHNIQUE IN BOOK
COLLECTING, but of course things have changed since then).

There are also censuses of at least a few famous books that can be
consulted...

Gutenberg Bible,
Shakespeare First Folio
Galileo's most famous book on astronomy.

hollowayd teased us with:
snip

9. Did the author's father buy up all copies of the first printing
and store them in his garage, refusing to sell them. (Yes, in the
case of one hypermodern mystery this is the cause of the 'rarity' of
the book.).

David,

This is *very* interesting and I don't know the story...are you willing
to share it? I could guess who, but I'd probably be wrong.

Ann

The answer is 7.
Best regards
Diane


"michael adams"
wrote in message
...

"Todd T" wrote in message
...
I think that all that has been said about what drives collectibility,
perceived scarcity etc. is true, but it doesn't mean that the original
poster's question is meaningless. It would be one more piece of
information
to add to a pile of other information, with no one piece sufficient all
by
itself. To me, at least, it is interesting for its own sake, regardless
of
its business implications.

It does seem difficult to imagine the perfect formula, but that does not
mean that no formula could possibly mean anything. I agree that the
true
extant copies would be impossible to get at in most cases,
...

Could you please outline the procedures you believe would be necessary,
and what you you would take to be the estimated cost, of quantifying in
any meaningful sense the extant copies of just one particular title
published within say the last ....er you can choose say 10 years,
20 years, 50 years ?

And we're talking normal print runs here of say 1,000 copies minimum
of normally distributed books.

I await your reply with interest.

....









but if one tried
instead to model the number of known copies this could be approached.
This
would have to be some combination of copies in public collections plus
number of copies for sale over a period of time. A point missed by many
seems to be that a model like this takes a bunch of examples and uses
them
to understand what may be typical. A weird fate for a single edition in
the
past would be overwhelmed by other data and be fairly irrelevant when
all
data are in. It's possible too that the study is more feasible for some
kinds of books than others, so some other objections may cease to apply
to
the more limited objective.

I don't agree that, because it can't be perfectly precise, it is silly
to
even think about. But then I'm a statistician, and my whole profession
is
about handling imprecision sufficiently to learn something.

- Todd T.

"hollowayd" wrote in message
om...
"michael adams" wrote in message
...
"HFB" wrote in message
...
Hi,

Thank you for your responses, especially to Diane for applying her
super
computer to the problem (took off her shoes to double her
computing
capacity, I believe).

I certainly disagree with the suggestion of Mr. Adams that the
answer
to
my
question wouldn't be "of much use to anyone anyway." Actually, it
is
of
vital importance to anyone who collects or sells books. It
concerns
the
rate at which books become scarce.



Let's assume that somewhere between 80-95% of all books are, on
average
(note the word "average") are destroyed each year. A rather
pedestrian
publication might have a survival rate of 80% per year. At this
rate,
after
100 years, .000006 books would remain--in other words there would
be
none
left. But, if it were a Shakespeare in a leather binding, the
survival
rate
might be 95% and there could be 178 copies surviving after 100
years.

This information, even though it is based on "gestimates" can help
the
collector in deciding what to collect,

...

What decides the collector on what to collect is what's currently
available in the price range he can afford. The books on offer by
dealers and auction houses. That's what determines scarcity, the
number of copies in circulation on the market. The percieved
scarcity.
So that if a thousand copies of a book were held in Institutional
Libraries and there were only five in private hands then that book
could be regarded as very scarce.

Not some half-baked guesstimate. I've never heard such nonsense
in my life.

...

or help the bookseller in pricing a
book where there might not be any guidance from the "experts" or
on-line
venues.

...

Booksellers price their books - both when buying and selling
according
to their judgement of what they percieve to be the demand for those
books.
Itself based on fashion and percieved rather than necessarily actual
scarcity. If they judge wrong then they go out of business.

...

Even though I am fairly confident in the 80-95% survival rate

...

Oh are you really? And how exactly did you arrive at that figure?

...


range, I thought there might be a published study to add a little
authority
to this.

Anyone have any further information about this or cogent (note the
word
cogent) comments?

...

Quite clearly you're incapable, for some reason best known to
yourself
of understandng the most salient point. Which is that the percieved
scarcity or otherwise of books depends on the number of such books
in
circulation. Not on the number



michael adams
There are as has been stated above far too many variables. Your
question is of the 'how long is a piece of string' variety.

Some of the variables that go into the survival of a book include.

1. How collectible was the book/author at time of publication?
Books that are recognized as collectible immediately will always be
available on the market (perhaps at a premium) whereas books by
authors who attain collectible status later will be scarcer. Compare
first editions of Dan Brown's first book to the value of the first
book by Jasper Fforde.. both very collectible but widely differing
prices.

2. Was the book or author collected by libraries?

3. Was the book or author RETAINED by libraries? Did his popularity
continue or were the books 'discarded'?

4. How large was the book? Many people speculate that folio volumes
survive in greater numbers because people don't like to throw away big
pretty books?

5. Was there a warehouse stash somewhere? Sometimes huge lots of a
formerly rare books appear on the market because somebody found boxes
and boxes of them. The converse of this are the instances where
book/publishers/distributors warehouses were flooded, burned, bombed,
etc.

6. Was the book remaindered or pulped by the publisher?

7. How well was the book distributed? Many copies in many places
will survive better.

8. How well was the book made?

9. Did the author's father buy up all copies of the first printing
and store them in his garage, refusing to sell them. (Yes, in the
case of one hypermodern mystery this is the cause of the 'rarity' of
the book.).

These are just off the top of my head factors that need to be
included... there are certainly many more.

Any formula will be too generic to be applied in specific instances,
any specific history will be too specialized to apply generally....

David Holloway, Bookseller

(I think that John Carter treats this in his TASTE & TECHNIQUE IN BOOK
COLLECTING, but of course things have changed since then).

There are also censuses of at least a few famous books that can be
consulted...

Gutenberg Bible,
Shakespeare First Folio
Galileo's most famous book on astronomy.