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Should I sell my coins now or wait?



 
 
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  #11  
Old February 23rd 04, 07:59 PM
WinWinscenario
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according to recent price lists, my coins have
almost all gone up in value and are now worth about $6k as opposed to
the $4k I paid for them a year and a half ago.


You are making an apples to oranges comparison. The prices you paid on ebaY do
not compare to the retail prices on the PCGS boards.

Looks at recent sell prices on ebaY for an apples to apples comparison. That
will give you a more honest picture of the change +/- in value.

Regards,
Tom
Ads
  #12  
Old February 23rd 04, 09:10 PM
Scot Kamins
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In article ,
Alan & Erin Williams wrote:

People tend to forget that on each purchase made
from EbaY, they were the high bidder. In Other Words, no one at that
time was willing to pay *more* for that coin than they were, making
them, by definition, the high water mark for that coin that day.


Well, no. It was the high water mark for the coin on EBAY that day.
It's quite possible that the coin was priced much higher in one or more
other venues, including other auction sites such as Teletrade.

Before I place my bids on eBay, I do quite a bit of research to make
sure I'm getting the best bang for my buck. Of course, sometimes I fail
- I recently paid about 1/2 more than I should have for a batch of unc
euros from The Netherlands because of a sloppy search formula I was
using on Google (a mistake I WON'T make again). But more often then not
I make out quite well.

I should mention that the VAST majority of my experiences have to do
with rare books, but the same principle applied to coins is proving
itself out.

Scot Kamins
---
RCC's Resident Newbie
  #13  
Old February 23rd 04, 09:53 PM
Alan & Erin Williams
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Scot Kamins wrote:

In article ,
Alan & Erin Williams wrote:

People tend to forget that on each purchase made
from EbaY, they were the high bidder. In Other Words, no one at that
time was willing to pay *more* for that coin than they were, making
them, by definition, the high water mark for that coin that day.


Well, no. It was the high water mark for the coin on EBAY that day.
It's quite possible that the coin was priced much higher in one or more
other venues, including other auction sites such as Teletrade.


Not to overly quibble, but a *similar* coin, not the *same* coin. It's important.

For instance, today EbaY showed me an "MS-64 Maryland Half Dollar" which
semi-irked me since my search included "NGC". The listing popped in
because the dealer is an NGC agent. He has other slabbed NGC coins for
auction. But this one, this 'MS-64' was raw. It doesn't look
unreasonable. It may well be similar to an "NGC MS-64". But it's not
one. It's raw. And since the seller didn't slab it...perhaps it's
*not* the same. Priced like one, though. Nasty-looking strike, I
think. But 'crisp' Maryland? Alas, I rarely see any that are.

So anyway. that's my point. It looks equal to, it's priced the same as,
but it definitely is not an NGC MS-64 Maryland Half. I try to think of
the coins as individuals rather than interchangeable parts. ;-)


Before I place my bids on eBay, I do quite a bit of research to make
sure I'm getting the best bang for my buck. Of course, sometimes I fail
- I recently paid about 1/2 more than I should have for a batch of unc
euros from The Netherlands because of a sloppy search formula I was
using on Google (a mistake I WON'T make again). But more often then not
I make out quite well.

I should mention that the VAST majority of my experiences have to do
with rare books, but the same principle applied to coins is proving
itself out.

I get a rush out of reading the rare book listing ads in the New York
Times Book Review each week. Never have placed an order, though.

Alan
'too many crayons in my house'
  #14  
Old February 23rd 04, 10:15 PM
Scot Kamins
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In article ,
Alan & Erin Williams wrote:


Not to overly quibble, but a *similar* coin, not the *same* coin. It's
important.


snip

So anyway. that's my point. It looks equal to, it's priced the same as,
but it definitely is not an NGC MS-64 Maryland Half. I try to think of
the coins as individuals rather than interchangeable parts. ;-)

And an excellent point, it is!!! It isn't quibbling at all. Apples to
apples - any other measurement is misinformed.

I get a rush out of reading the rare book listing ads in the New York
Times Book Review each week. Never have placed an order, though.

Alan
'too many crayons in my house'


Try having a Lab puppy who LOVES to chew paper. One quickly learns how
high off the ground one needs to keep one's books.

Scot Kamins
---
RCC's Resident Newbie
  #15  
Old February 24th 04, 12:20 AM
bri
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"P.Nichols" wrote in message
om...
I realize many people consider coins a bad investment, and that many
of you here are into the hobby of coin collecting more than the
business of it.

I was told 2 years ago, "Don't invest in coins, they are not a good
investment". But I read some books and did some research and decided
that it made more sense to buy coins than it did to invest in stocks
or bonds.


Once you win an auction for a coin where can it go in value in the short
run? Nowhere really--prob. down.
If you know a lot about the grading system and how each service grades them
maybe you have some that are undergraded. Resubmitting the ones that look
undergraded and hoping you get a higher grade can get you a lot more cash in
the short run, but the chances of that happening are probably not very good.



So anyway, I bought about $4k worth of coins from ebay, mostly Morgan
dollars, a couple gold coins, mostly PCGS or NGC graded coins, a few
graded by other certification co's.

But here's the rub: according to recent price lists, my coins have
almost all gone up in value and are now worth about $6k as opposed to
the $4k I paid for them a year and a half ago.


Will PCGS still be demanding a premium for their opnion in 10 years or not?
Take any of those out of that PCGS slab and go try to sell those. Talk about
a rude awakening.



Now, my questions to you kind folks are these:
1) Have most people made good money on their coins the past year or
so(i.e.; did the market generally rise in silver and gold collectible
coins)? Did I just buy at the right time, or do I have some talent for
buying coins, or did I just get lucky?


Back when gold was about $800 an ounce maybe that was the time to get into
gold.
The economy has to be just a total disaster before gold, silver and coins
become a good investment. Basically a global economic collapse. IOW cash
would have to have almost no value at all and everyone is looking for
something of base value to protect themselves.

2) If the idea is that I want to make money on my coins, should I sell
them now (since the price is up on them) or is it likely to go up even
more, so I should wait?

I made the investment because I am trying to get money together to buy
some property. We are still a ways away from having enough money, so I
could wait if I thought the value of graded MS64 and 65 silver and
gold coins is generally going up. Or I could sell now and put the
money in stocks or an IRA or ???


If you had invested in an indexed stock fund two years ago you would have
made more than 2 grand by now. The average was what--7 or 8 thousand and
it's almost 11 now so.....
Esp. if one of those split just after you bought.
A Fidelity growth mutual fund gets @ 25-35% a year now. Coins won't get that
kind of return only when the econoomy is really really tanking.
Interest rates on loans are at an all time low. Maybe you can get a loan for
a downpayment? I know of some people who did that, bought some land, sold
the land after a short time and still made money.
My number one advice is to get rid of that credit card debt before you do
anything. If you got one anyhow.




Please advise. I realize no one has a crystal ball and so no one can
give a definitive answer. But I am just asking for an "educated guess"
from you people who have been around awhile in the coin game and
probably have some insight into the current and future market of
collectible Morgan dollars and St. Gaudens. For me, making $2k is a
great deal, not a small amount of money, and I just want to keep my
$6k in the place where it is most likely to grow, with not too much
risk. If it goes back down to $4k, that wouldn't be so bad... My
instinct is to cash out the $2k I made by selling some of the coins I
think are least likely to have good increases, and put that $2k into
the coins I think are more likely to increase.


No guts no glory!
People who remained in the stock market after the crash in '87 made their
money back 10 years sooner than people who chickened out and got all "safe"
at about 3% interest.




  #16  
Old February 28th 04, 08:45 AM
P. Nichols
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Thanks for all the replies.

I do like coins, I love buying them, and having them, and honestly it
is going to be difficult for me to sell them if I decide to do so.

But I am saving for a downpayment on my first house (or land to build
on), so my question is, Will I make more money by selling these coins,
now, which seem to have appreciated in value over the past year and a
half; or will I make more money by selling them in 6 months or a year,
or two?

I realize no one can really answer that, but educated opinions are
worth something, nonetheless.

To be more specific, the coins that appreciated were mostly Morgans,
all MS64 and MS65, all slabbed by PCGS and NGC, a couple by PCI. The
rest are misc. things, silver proof sets, etc. - mostly all silver,
some gold, one MS63 St. Gaudens (PCGS). 2 of the Morgans are MS65 CC,
another is an O.

I think I will do a search on ebay and see if there are any coins with
the same stats selling recently, and what they went for. But even if I
see that I HAVE made money (i.e.; I can likely sell them on ebay for a
profit), then the question still remains: will I make more by selling
now or by selling later.

But am I correct that the price of well-graded, good looking Morgans
have generaly gone up in the past year and a half?
  #17  
Old February 28th 04, 08:57 AM
K6AZ
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On Sat, 28 Feb 2004 07:45:21 GMT, P. Nichols wrote:

But am I correct that the price of well-graded, good looking Morgans
have generaly gone up in the past year and a half?


They have exploded in the last 18 months, especially CC Morgans.
Morgans have always been manipulated by a small group of "big boys".
At the level they are now, I'm seeing a lot of material hit the market that
just wasn't being sold when the market was at rock bottom. I expect
the big boys to be flooding the market any time now to take their profits.
This cycle of speculation and manipulation has gone on many times in
the 27 years I have collected Morgans. At this point, if you do want to
sell to finance a house, I would take my profits. I believe the interest
rates are rock bottom now, so it would be a wise move to get out of your
Morgans while they are hot, and get into a nice fixed rate mortage before
the interest rates start going up.
--
K6AZ WEB PAGES

http://www.k6az.com/web_pages.htm
  #18  
Old February 28th 04, 01:50 PM
BAJJERFAN
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K6AZ wrote in message . ..
On Sat, 28 Feb 2004 07:45:21 GMT, P. Nichols wrote:

But am I correct that the price of well-graded, good looking Morgans
have generaly gone up in the past year and a half?


They have exploded in the last 18 months, especially CC Morgans.
Morgans have always been manipulated by a small group of "big boys".
At the level they are now, I'm seeing a lot of material hit the market that
just wasn't being sold when the market was at rock bottom. I expect
the big boys to be flooding the market any time now to take their profits.
This cycle of speculation and manipulation has gone on many times in
the 27 years I have collected Morgans. At this point, if you do want to
sell to finance a house, I would take my profits. I believe the interest
rates are rock bottom now, so it would be a wise move to get out of your
Morgans while they are hot, and get into a nice fixed rate mortage before
the interest rates start going up.
--
K6AZ WEB PAGES

http://www.k6az.com/web_pages.htm




Try listing a few here (since its free) to see if they sell. There are
also free buy sell and trade boards at NGC and PCGS. The audience
isn't as large as eBay, but you can't beat the price. Don't forget
that Uncle Sugar wants his cut of that 2 grand and its no secret that
he is strapped fer cash these days.
  #19  
Old March 3rd 04, 10:56 AM
P. Nichols
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Thank you very much for that reply. I think I will take your advice
and dump them while they're hot.

Two of my Morgans are PCI's which according to that web site
(http://www.k6az.com/pci/pci.htm) are the old style 10 digit ones
which are graded more conservatively. They do look like they MIGHT
grade up, although one expert at a coin show told me no. And he wasn't
trying to buy it...

Think I should try to get them re-slabbed by PCGS or just sell them as
is? They are currently MS65 and if they went MS66 they would go WAY up
in value.
  #20  
Old March 3rd 04, 12:16 PM
K6AZ
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On Wed, 03 Mar 2004 09:56:43 GMT, P. Nichols wrote:

Thank you very much for that reply. I think I will take your advice
and dump them while they're hot.

Two of my Morgans are PCI's which according to that web site
(http://www.k6az.com/pci/pci.htm) are the old style 10 digit ones
which are graded more conservatively. They do look like they MIGHT
grade up, although one expert at a coin show told me no. And he wasn't
trying to buy it...

Think I should try to get them re-slabbed by PCGS or just sell them as
is? They are currently MS65 and if they went MS66 they would go WAY up
in value.


Even if the just cross at PCGS (MS65) you will get much more for them.
If you really believe they are 65s, get them out of the PCI holders. Even
the old PCI holders have been drug down by the new PCI grading.
--
K6AZ WEB PAGES

http://www.k6az.com/web_pages.htm
 




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