Universal Rarity Scale

I've just finished reading "The Expert's Guide to Collecting &
Investing in Rare Coins" by Q. David Bowers. Do any of you know of a
source for Universal Rarity Scale numbers for most U.S. coins? Bowers
gives URS numbers for a few coins throughout the book, but not for
many. If URS numbers aren't available anywhere, what about numbers
using the Sheldon Rarity Scale or any other indication of the rarity
of a given coin? Thanks.

MikeO wrote:
I've just finished reading "The Expert's Guide to Collecting &
Investing in Rare Coins" by Q. David Bowers. Do any of you know of a
source for Universal Rarity Scale numbers for most U.S. coins? Bowers
gives URS numbers for a few coins throughout the book, but not for
many. If URS numbers aren't available anywhere, what about numbers
using the Sheldon Rarity Scale or any other indication of the rarity
of a given coin? Thanks.

The vast majority of collector coins are considered to be in the most
common category, including the keys, for most of the popularly
collected US coin series. Rare die varieties, uncirculated and proof
early gold coins, pattern coins, early proofs (prior to 1858)
immediately come to mind as likely registering on the lower portion of
the URS scale, but I don't know of a difinitive source for most of
those numbers. The Cherrypickers Guide provides URS numbers for
several rare die varieties. In the Breen Encyclopedia, he stated that
he tried to refer to a coin's rarity as often as possible based on the
Sheldon Scale, although that scale falls apart when it comes to later
date modern coins based on scarcity versus demand. I presume that was
the Genesis of the URS.

On 31 Jan 2006 15:48:01 -0800, "reality"
wrote:


MikeO wrote:
I've just finished reading "The Expert's Guide to Collecting &
Investing in Rare Coins" by Q. David Bowers. Do any of you know of a
source for Universal Rarity Scale numbers for most U.S. coins? Bowers
gives URS numbers for a few coins throughout the book, but not for
many. If URS numbers aren't available anywhere, what about numbers
using the Sheldon Rarity Scale or any other indication of the rarity
of a given coin? Thanks.

The vast majority of collector coins are considered to be in the most
common category, including the keys, for most of the popularly
collected US coin series. Rare die varieties, uncirculated and proof
early gold coins, pattern coins, early proofs (prior to 1858)
immediately come to mind as likely registering on the lower portion of
the URS scale, but I don't know of a difinitive source for most of
those numbers. The Cherrypickers Guide provides URS numbers for
several rare die varieties. In the Breen Encyclopedia, he stated that
he tried to refer to a coin's rarity as often as possible based on the
Sheldon Scale, although that scale falls apart when it comes to later
date modern coins based on scarcity versus demand. I presume that was
the Genesis of the URS.

I understand that the two rarity scales, Sheldon's and Bowers', are
exactly opposite ways to look at rarity. Bowers uses 1 to indicate
the most extreme rarity. Sheldon means just the opposite - 1
representing the most common. I think that both were created out of
whole cloth. Neither makes a whole lot of sense, given the numbers
associated with the scarcity of the coins. It is very important,
however, to make sure which scale, the Sheldon scale or the "URS" of
Bowers, is being used.
I think that Dr. Sheldon became enamored with his approach to the
grading scale and transferred his approach to the Rarity Scale. Why
are there such great differences in the intervals of R8, 7, 6, 5, and
4? Much like the question of the intervals represented by F, VF, and
EF. I am sure there is a rationale. Perhaps a math whiz could
explain the relationships of the following:
R8- 1, 2, or 3 examples known
R7 -4-12 known
R6- 13-30 known
R5- 31-75 known
R4- 76- 200 known

And this:
Basal State
Poor 1
Fair 2
AG 3
G4-6
VG7-11
F12-19
VF20-39
XF40-49
AU50-59

The basis for the grades was Sheldon's approach to valuing Large
Cents.

Was there a similar connection to the numbers and the Rarity Scale he
developed? I would love to know.
Aram.

On Tue, 31 Jan 2006 18:23:39 -0800, Aram H. Haroutunian
wrote:

On 31 Jan 2006 15:48:01 -0800, "reality"
wrote:


EF. I am sure there is a rationale. Perhaps a math whiz could
explain the relationships of the following:
R8- 1, 2, or 3 examples known
R7 -4-12 known
R6- 13-30 known
R5- 31-75 known
R4- 76- 200 known

Well, other than the step from R8 to R7, the highest number in each
group is _about_ 2 1/2 times as common as the next rarest. The R4-R5
step is a little bigger (2.67 times), but since that's the last one
for which he lists numbers, I'm not sure if it's an anomoly, or the
start of a nice curve.

To fit the "2 1/2 times" scenario, the highest number of examples to
qualify for R4 should have been 188. He might have just decided to
round it off. Or he could have used the ever popular "this sounds
about right" model.

take care,
Scott

Apples and oranges.
A Universal Rarity Scale works only within one area of interest. I
collect a number of different types of tokens that each have their own
rarity scale, which makes sense to me. For example I collect magic
tokens, which are usually issued in very small numbers. A R-1 is more
than 1,000 and a R-2 is 501-1,000. In Civil War Tokens a R-1 is more
than 5,000, a R-2 is 2,001-5,000 and a R-3 is 501-2,000. Therefore, a
R-1 magic token can be many times rarer than a R-3 Civil War Token. It
is fun to compare when a token "crosses over" into different realms of
interest. The Clarksburg Ohio Civil War Token issued by French is
listed by Fuld as OH170A-1a, R-5 (75-200 known) and as a magic token,
MT-138, R-7 (11-25 known). Even if the estimates of known examples were
the same, they would still have different "R" numbers.
Jamaica issued only 48,000 farthings in 1910, a year after the San
Francisco mint made 484,000 1909-S VDB cents. Bought my farthing for
$75. Ten times rarer, and at less than 1/10th the cost of the cent.
Rarity doesn't equate to price, unless related to other comparable
coins.
Scarcity vs demand says it all.

On 31 Jan 2006 20:52:29 -0800, "Jud" wrote:

Apples and oranges.
A Universal Rarity Scale works only within one area of interest. I
collect a number of different types of tokens that each have their own
rarity scale, which makes sense to me. For example I collect magic
tokens, which are usually issued in very small numbers. A R-1 is more
than 1,000 and a R-2 is 501-1,000. In Civil War Tokens a R-1 is more
than 5,000, a R-2 is 2,001-5,000 and a R-3 is 501-2,000. Therefore, a
R-1 magic token can be many times rarer than a R-3 Civil War Token. It
is fun to compare when a token "crosses over" into different realms of
interest. The Clarksburg Ohio Civil War Token issued by French is
listed by Fuld as OH170A-1a, R-5 (75-200 known) and as a magic token,
MT-138, R-7 (11-25 known). Even if the estimates of known examples were
the same, they would still have different "R" numbers.
Jamaica issued only 48,000 farthings in 1910, a year after the San
Francisco mint made 484,000 1909-S VDB cents. Bought my farthing for
$75. Ten times rarer, and at less than 1/10th the cost of the cent.
Rarity doesn't equate to price, unless related to other comparable
coins.
Scarcity vs demand says it all.

Very interesting stuff, Jud. I can see a relationship between the
apples and oranges in the sense that Dr Sheldon created both
systematic approaches out of his head, and both are fruit. :-)
The complete Sheldon Scale of Rarity is:

1 - Common (In Bust Quarters it is 1,250 or more known, or believed to
exist)
2- "Not as common"- From 501 to 1,250 KBTE
3- Scarce- 201-500
4- Very scarce- 76-200
5- Rare- 31-75
6- Very rare- 13- 30
7- Extremely rare- 4-12
8- Unique, or nearly so- 1, 2, or 3 known

(Taken from the late Jules Reiver's Variety Identification Manual for
US Quarter Dollars, 1796- 1838.)

I think it is very clever to create a separate Rarity Scale for
specific issues, however, it seems that that approach would create
confusion for newer collectors who might bid at auction, for example,
and misinterpret the rarity ratings given because now each series
might represent an apple or an orange with the newbie thinking of a
pomegranate (sp?). :-)

I also agree that rarity in and of itself means very little. In the
original Cherrypickers' Guide, Fivaz and Stanton listed both rarity
and demand, rarity represented by a URS number and demand represented
by stars, IIRC. Of course, those of us who are into Bust material had
to interpret the rarity ratings from URS to Sheldon to understand what
was intended, but the addition of "interest level" made the material
more meaningful, to me, at least.

I would love to hear more discussion about the issue of rarity,
popularity, value not as a function of condition so much as a function
of rarity, perception, demand, fun, and any other facets of collecting
involved.
Aram.

On Wed, 01 Feb 2006 01:21:35 -0800, Aram H. Haroutunian
wrote:

On 31 Jan 2006 20:52:29 -0800, "Jud" wrote:

Apples and oranges.
A Universal Rarity Scale works only within one area of interest. I
collect a number of different types of tokens that each have their own
rarity scale, which makes sense to me. For example I collect magic
tokens, which are usually issued in very small numbers. A R-1 is more
than 1,000 and a R-2 is 501-1,000. In Civil War Tokens a R-1 is more
than 5,000, a R-2 is 2,001-5,000 and a R-3 is 501-2,000. Therefore, a
R-1 magic token can be many times rarer than a R-3 Civil War Token. It
is fun to compare when a token "crosses over" into different realms of
interest. The Clarksburg Ohio Civil War Token issued by French is
listed by Fuld as OH170A-1a, R-5 (75-200 known) and as a magic token,
MT-138, R-7 (11-25 known). Even if the estimates of known examples were
the same, they would still have different "R" numbers.
Jamaica issued only 48,000 farthings in 1910, a year after the San
Francisco mint made 484,000 1909-S VDB cents. Bought my farthing for
$75. Ten times rarer, and at less than 1/10th the cost of the cent.
Rarity doesn't equate to price, unless related to other comparable
coins.
Scarcity vs demand says it all.

Very interesting stuff, Jud. I can see a relationship between the
apples and oranges in the sense that Dr Sheldon created both
systematic approaches out of his head, and both are fruit. :-)
The complete Sheldon Scale of Rarity is:

1 - Common (In Bust Quarters it is 1,250 or more known, or believed to
exist)
2- "Not as common"- From 501 to 1,250 KBTE
3- Scarce- 201-500
4- Very scarce- 76-200
5- Rare- 31-75
6- Very rare- 13- 30
7- Extremely rare- 4-12
8- Unique, or nearly so- 1, 2, or 3 known

(Taken from the late Jules Reiver's Variety Identification Manual for
US Quarter Dollars, 1796- 1838.)

So, at least with Bust Quarters, the greatest number of examples for
each "rarity" does go up by 2 1/2 times, except for the jump from R8
to R7, and from R5 to R4.

take care,
Scott
"Stand back kids, it's math!"

On Wed, 01 Feb 2006 10:20:51 GMT,
(Scott Stevenson) wrote:

On Wed, 01 Feb 2006 01:21:35 -0800, Aram H. Haroutunian
wrote:

On 31 Jan 2006 20:52:29 -0800, "Jud" wrote:

Apples and oranges.
A Universal Rarity Scale works only within one area of interest. I
collect a number of different types of tokens that each have their own
rarity scale, which makes sense to me. For example I collect magic
tokens, which are usually issued in very small numbers. A R-1 is more
than 1,000 and a R-2 is 501-1,000. In Civil War Tokens a R-1 is more
than 5,000, a R-2 is 2,001-5,000 and a R-3 is 501-2,000. Therefore, a
R-1 magic token can be many times rarer than a R-3 Civil War Token. It
is fun to compare when a token "crosses over" into different realms of
interest. The Clarksburg Ohio Civil War Token issued by French is
listed by Fuld as OH170A-1a, R-5 (75-200 known) and as a magic token,
MT-138, R-7 (11-25 known). Even if the estimates of known examples were
the same, they would still have different "R" numbers.
Jamaica issued only 48,000 farthings in 1910, a year after the San
Francisco mint made 484,000 1909-S VDB cents. Bought my farthing for
$75. Ten times rarer, and at less than 1/10th the cost of the cent.
Rarity doesn't equate to price, unless related to other comparable
coins.
Scarcity vs demand says it all.

Very interesting stuff, Jud. I can see a relationship between the
apples and oranges in the sense that Dr Sheldon created both
systematic approaches out of his head, and both are fruit. :-)
The complete Sheldon Scale of Rarity is:

1 - Common (In Bust Quarters it is 1,250 or more known, or believed to
exist)
2- "Not as common"- From 501 to 1,250 KBTE
3- Scarce- 201-500
4- Very scarce- 76-200
5- Rare- 31-75
6- Very rare- 13- 30
7- Extremely rare- 4-12
8- Unique, or nearly so- 1, 2, or 3 known

(Taken from the late Jules Reiver's Variety Identification Manual for
US Quarter Dollars, 1796- 1838.)

So, at least with Bust Quarters, the greatest number of examples for
each "rarity" does go up by 2 1/2 times, except for the jump from R8
to R7, and from R5 to R4.

take care,
Scott
"Stand back kids, it's math!"

So, would it be reasonable to conclude that Dr. Sheldon had a "thing"
about the interval of 2 1/2? Does any other model resemble it?
Aram.

On Tue, 31 Jan 2006 20:35:26 GMT, MikeO wrote:

I've just finished reading "The Expert's Guide to Collecting &
Investing in Rare Coins" by Q. David Bowers. Do any of you know of a
source for Universal Rarity Scale numbers for most U.S. coins? Bowers
gives URS numbers for a few coins throughout the book, but not for
many. If URS numbers aren't available anywhere, what about numbers
using the Sheldon Rarity Scale or any other indication of the rarity
of a given coin? Thanks.

Very interesting & helpful comments. In Bowers book he describes
where the numbers come from. He says " stated simply, it is a
geometric progression of numbers, rounded off for convenience in use,
with each category containing about twice as many members as the
preceding category." His first attempt used precise numbers in the
higher ranges, such as URS-16 being 16,385 to 32,768, then someone
suggested that the URS would be simpler if he rounded off the numbers
in higher categories.