Let the caucus circus begin!

On Fri, 04 Jan 2008 00:09:48 -0800, DeserTBoB
wrote:

I doubt Huckabee will survive long in the Primaries. He'll be way
behind in any of the New Hamsphire vote and I suspect Super-Tuesday
will kill him, if he isn't already dead in the water by then.
-Tom Sr. snip

Which means that unless Giuiliani can win, we'll get Romney. I'm sure
that works fine for Dems because the RR isn't likely to give him
enough support to keep even Hillary out of office.


Agreed. The stories I got out of Iowa tonight a

1.) Record youth turnout at the Dem caucuses, and record turnout by
all Democrats. That played well for Obama, not-so-hot for Edwards

He took 2nd in a virtual tie with third place Clinton. That Clinton
didn't finish first is notable, that Edwards did as well as she did is
a miracle.

But can he keep it up? He's got to do better than third place in at
least the next three primaries to even have a chance.

and badly for Clinton, who needed the middle-aged and older female vote
that just didn't coalesce for her, and who went for...get
this...Obama!

And Edwards. Of the three, Hillary got the smallest share of that
vote and ironically, it was a vote she was specially courting in Iowa.

I'll bet the Clinton camp is worried ****less and getting ready for a
major change in voter targeting.

The real worry for Hillary isn't Obama, proper...rather
it's that Edwards beat her, even if only by a nose. Lesson: Hillary's
whole campaign needs to be retooled..."experience" doesn't work
anymore, neither does her being a "change" agent.

She's not a "change" agent, she's a return to the past. Not that the
nineties is all that bad a past to return to . . .

Of course, this is
only IOWA...49 states left, not to mention "Tsunami Tuesday."

"Super" Tuesday. I'll bet Georgia will go for Obama and Huckabee.

Also,
don't EVER forget..."Comeback Kid" Clinton LOVES to run as an underdog
and so, naturally, does she. Bill has been a genius in working the
"underdog" spot in every election he's ever been in, and yes...he's
very active in Hillary's campaign strategy.

Makes sense.

2.) 60% of ALL Republican caucusers were self-styled "evangelicals."
If you follow the underlying Huckabee logic, he should have run the
table, but he didn't. Telling is that 14% of "evangelicals" went for
Romney! Enjoy it now, Huckleberry...America's not ready for yet
another "talk to God" guy in the White House...not to mention one who
resembles Gomer Pyle a bit too much for comfort.

But he's the Republican most likely to turn out the Evangelical vote,
just as Giuliani is the Repulican most likely to bleed votes off
Clinton.

3.) BIG news of the GOP: Guiliani only pulled 3%! 3%!!!! Even Ron
Paul beat him!

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

In hindsight it makes sense. The RR won't vote for Giuliani, the
midwest isn't likely to vote for a New Yorker and western independence
and liberty voters are ones Ron Paul appeals to.

So much for his "name recognition" and being
"America's mayor." Yoo hoo, Rootie Tootie...it's not working anymore.
Guiliani thinks that firing up late (in Florida, where he thinks all
the snowbird retirees from NYC will all flock to him)

And if they do?

he can just
assume the top slot from there into "Tsunami Tuesday," but that
strategy could be his immediate undoing.

He's done far to badly in Iowa. I'm not sure he can even be
considered a serious contender. Giuliani's biggest influence on this
election may end up being who he throws his support to by convention
time. The Dems nominate first and their nominee will have a lot of
influence on the Rep choice (unless one of them starts running away
with the race).

Mega-advantage: McCain, who
may take New Hampshire and has already announced he'll be going, not
to South Carolina, where the churchers will drool over Huckabee, but
Michigan, where he can bury Romney on his home turf. Should McCain
clean Romney's clock in MI, he can then kick Giuliani out of the #1
spot in the national polls...which Giuliani's been doing to himself
just in the last couple of weeks anyway...and thus out of the box on
"Tsunami Tuesday."

If, if, if. McCain can still bleed a few left of center votes from
the Dems but will the Fundies vote for him?

4.) Overall: BOTH parties are sick and tired of the status quo.

Major error there, man. The PARTIES are perfectly happy with the
status quo. It's the center that's sick and tired of it.

Bush
has destroyed the GOP machine that used to anoint their nominees prior
to ANY primaries. "Experience" also isn't playing well to GOP voters
anymore, just as it backfired on Hillary in Iowa. I mean, look at all
the "experience" that Dumbsfeld and Cheney have, and they, along with
their addled-brained boss, have almost tanked the whole country!

Bush was no more experienced than Huckabee or Edwards when he was
elected. His lack of knowledge about international issues was a major
criticism of him by Dems in 2000.

Same works against Hillary, whose refusal to abandon her Iraq position came
back to bite her in the fanny.

I understand it perfectly. She won't apologize because the mistake
wasn't hers. It was the adminisration's for providing faulty
information to the Congress in order to bypass reality and do what it
wanted.

Both Huckabee and Obama, for their
respective parties, represent a complete "throw the bums out"
attitude.

I don't see that with Hucakbee. The only "throw the bums out"
candidates I percieve are Obama, Edwards and Paul.

This, however, will ultimately benefit McCain on the GOP
side, but who gets the bow on the Dem side depends solely on how much
overhauling of Clinton gets done by "Tsunami Tuesday." Edwards showed
tonight that he can indeed cash in on the "change" platform, but he'd
better be prepared to take on Obama head to head, NOT Hillary.

I hate to make predictions 'cause I'm so often wrong, but I suspect a
pair of very interesting conventions. Both parties seem to be
splitting between candidates.

Romney is pretty. He's just not fast on his feet and isn't well
prepared to deal with his detractors.

Huckabee is undeniably a Bush Republican. Devout, liberal and
spendthrift, he's pure status quo and a likely GOP choice.

McCain is going to have to work hard and that will take a toll on his
health unless he has excellent staffing.

Early picks in NH: Obama for the Dems, McCain for the GOP, but
anything can happen in a week! Romney may unleash robotic Mormons
into every nook and cranny of the state this weekend, so who knows?

More likely Huckabee will try to flood the state with volunteers.

One thing's for sure...for McCain to win in NH, he's got to stop
hemorrhaging votes of the "indies" to Obama; else, Romney gets the
win.

Can't add anything to that. McCain offended his center by sucking up
to the RR. He has to make up for that and fast. He also needs to
give compelling arguments on issues other than Iraq. The voters are
looking at other positions as well.

He can do that now only by painting Obama as a "babe in the
woods" compared to his own long Senate career as an "outsider," and he
definitely has those credentials.

Yes, McCain has a streak of that western state independence and that's
something he may be able to capitalize on. Nobody seems yet to be
going after him, but they'll start if he does well in NH.

Swill