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Let the caucus circus begin!
Here's my take at Iowa, although I'm not betting the farm on it...the
race is still wide open even as the caucuses open: Democratic winner: Clinton (or possibly Edwards) Republican winner: Huckabee Out of contention by New Hampshi Biden, Dodd, Richardson, Thompson, Paul, Hunter. Rationale: Clinton's been picking up the undecideds, and "soft" support for Obama is eroding. Edwards, though, has the wind of momentum behind him going into caucus day. Turnout is crucial for Obama, and he might not get all he needs of first timers to put him over, while ****ed off Maytag employees and union members for Edwards have been working very hard, as have Hillary's people, to boost their core turnout bases. BIG negative for Obama: "Oprahfest," which turns out to have turned OFF as many potential supporters as it was supposed to have turned ON. Oprah's more polarizing than Hillary could ever be, and fawning housefraus who love her are more than offset by others who cannot STAND her. The BIG battle in New Hampshire is a weird one fostered by New Hampshire's wacky "open primary for independents only" system. Now, we have Obama fighting for votes directly against McCain, of all people! This could skew New Hampshire results to the point of irrelevance as far as the party nominations go, but would give McCain some badly needed fuel to burn into South Carolina, and could give Obama a lift after a probable loss to Clinton (or Edwards) in Iowa. Right now, Romney's the GOP favorite in New Hampshire, with Clinton back to leading Obama...but that's only among party regulars. Once you throw the independents into the fray, things get murky, although it does make McCain a contender again, if a weak one. Huckabee won't even come close in New Hampshire, and he's already in retrograde in Iowa, but may win there anyway, due to the robotic churcher vote. Those Episcopalians and Congregationalists in New England will have nothing of some southern preacher in THEIR neck o' the woods...ayuh! An Edwards win in Iowa could be parlayed into big news for him if he takes South Carolina, where he's got the home state advantage. The GOP in SC is nothing but chaos, providing yet another opening for McCain. Romney and Giuliani are both sinking there, where they're duking it out with Huckabee over the churchers. A McCain win in SC will do the greatest damage to Romney, who was hoping to take the state in a cake walk after a big, paid-for win in New Hampshire. The sad fact of our flawed system is that we'll lose two excellent candidates, Joe Biden (D-DE) and Chris Dodd (D-CT). Both are probably the best qualified in foreign and defense policy to hold office, but somehow never got what Nixon once called "the big bow" from the party or the public. You have to throw Richardson in there for qualifications, too, but he's just plain unelectable. The media's probably as much to blame for this as is the DNC, but at least we'll still have both of them in the Senate after the dust stops blowing. My gut tells me Richardson will wind up in a Cabinet post (his forte) shortly after the Democratic win in November. Over on the other side, the GOP doesn't lose much, if anything. Paul...tin foil hats, freemason demons and black choppers. Hunter...California Republican Assembly-favored whack job and defense contractor shill who probably won't even win reelection in his own district. Tancredo at least had the sense to get out before getting steamrollered. As far as the general goes, voters favor "any Democrat" over "any Republican" by almost a 2/3 majority...big trouble for the GOP, AND big trouble for them "down ticket" for the Congressional and Senate races. For once, whack job Pat Buchanan may be right in prognosticating that the GOP will cede all control of the House for many years to come. I don't think the Dems can take cloture-proof control of the Senate (maybe in the mid-terms), but they'll easily pick up 5, and perhaps 6, seats. With that, there will be enough leverage against northeastern and western Republican senators to provide a foil against right wing filibusters by wacky southerners and Texans. PREDICTION: Dick Cheney will be indicted by Justice over "Plamegate" some time in '08, and will do a Nixonian stonewall, citing "executive privilege"...which he doesn't even have! |
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