The next bubble?

David Hall, founder of the Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS) and regarded as one of
the top numismatists of the twentieth century, says “we’re now experiencing a renaissance
in coin investments and collecting.”


http://countingpips.com/forex-news/2...-to-break-out/

JAM

"Frank Galikanokus" wrote in message
...

David Hall, founder of the Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS) and
regarded as one of
the top numismatists of the twentieth century, says "we're now
experiencing a renaissance
in coin investments and collecting."


http://countingpips.com/forex-news/2...-to-break-out/

JAM

"Experts say......." This implies that ALL experts would agree
with the author and David Hall and it doesn't address the percentage of
experts who would differ. No doubt some of the same "numismatic experts"
were among those forecasting $2,000 gold and $50 silver by 2012.
Personally, I always thought it was silly to grade and slab bullion coins.
They're produced primarily as investment items that also happen to be
attractive to coin collectors. Their intrinsic value should be much more
apparent at any given time than will the premium demand for a PCGS PR69
versus a PCGS PR70.

Having the Maria Theresa in mind, I always thought a bullion coin should
either contain one single date or no date at all. There are certainly
plenty of actual circulation coins to collect in the full range of
conditions. So while David Hall may predict a great future for his
"perfect grade" bullion coins he touts, I predict that with the increasing
glut of bullion-type issues and the steadily rising value of gold and
silver, the bottom will eventually fall out of this premium market. No
expert and no charge.

On Apr 11, 7:03*pm, "Bremick" wrote:
"Frank Galikanokus" wrote in message

...



David Hall, founder of the Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS) and
regarded as one of
the top numismatists of the twentieth century, says "we're now
experiencing a renaissance
in coin investments and collecting."

http://countingpips.com/forex-news/2...-is-this-marke...

JAM

"Experts say......." * * * * * *This implies that ALL experts would agree
with the author and David Hall and it doesn't address the percentage of
experts who would differ. *No doubt some of the same "numismatic experts"
were among those forecasting $2,000 gold and $50 silver by 2012.
Personally, I always thought it was silly to grade and slab bullion coins..
They're produced primarily as investment items that also happen to be
attractive to coin collectors. *Their intrinsic value should be much more
apparent at any given time than will the premium demand for a PCGS PR69
versus a PCGS PR70.

Having the Maria Theresa in mind, I always thought a bullion coin should
either contain one single date or no date at all. *There are certainly
plenty of actual circulation coins to collect in the full range of
conditions. * So while David Hall may predict a great future for his
"perfect grade" bullion coins he touts, I predict that with the increasing
glut of bullion-type issues and the steadily rising value of gold and
silver, the bottom will eventually fall out of this premium market. *No
expert and no charge.

I remember when said unspeakable unmentionable person used to have
himself "paged" repeatedly at large coin shows at which he was not in
attendance. That went on for years and years in the 1980s and 1990s.
Phoney-baloney.

All "numismatic" values are suspect today (especially "late" in any
market-cycle), although a true dyed-in-the wool coin collector may
have to "pay the piper" from time-to-time.

Modern MS "70" in plastic is the greatest crock-of-****ae out there.
Beware, BEware, BEWARE!!!

oly

On Apr 11, 9:15*pm, oly wrote:
On Apr 11, 7:03*pm, "Bremick" wrote:





"Frank Galikanokus" wrote in message

...

David Hall, founder of the Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS) and
regarded as one of
the top numismatists of the twentieth century, says "we're now
experiencing a renaissance
in coin investments and collecting."

http://countingpips.com/forex-news/2...-is-this-marke....

JAM

"Experts say......." * * * * * *This implies that ALL experts would agree
with the author and David Hall and it doesn't address the percentage of
experts who would differ. *No doubt some of the same "numismatic experts"
were among those forecasting $2,000 gold and $50 silver by 2012.
Personally, I always thought it was silly to grade and slab bullion coins.
They're produced primarily as investment items that also happen to be
attractive to coin collectors. *Their intrinsic value should be much more
apparent at any given time than will the premium demand for a PCGS PR69
versus a PCGS PR70.

Having the Maria Theresa in mind, I always thought a bullion coin should
either contain one single date or no date at all. *There are certainly
plenty of actual circulation coins to collect in the full range of
conditions. * So while David Hall may predict a great future for his
"perfect grade" bullion coins he touts, I predict that with the increasing
glut of bullion-type issues and the steadily rising value of gold and
silver, the bottom will eventually fall out of this premium market. *No
expert and no charge.

I remember when said unspeakable unmentionable person used to have
himself "paged" repeatedly at large coin shows at which he was not in
attendance. *That went on for years and years in the 1980s and 1990s.
Phoney-baloney.

All "numismatic" values are suspect today (especially "late" in any
market-cycle), although a true dyed-in-the wool coin collector may
have to "pay the piper" from time-to-time.

Modern MS "70" in plastic is the greatest crock-of-****ae out there.
Beware, BEware, BEWARE!!!

oly- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

And may I say, we are presently in a sort-of renaissance in numismatic
books and printed information. Regretably, a lot of it buries the
coin "history" behind the so-called "market information", but at least
the knowledge is being recorded and the reader has the opportunity to
separate the wheat from the chaff.

We are in "good days" in that sense.

oly

"oly" wrote in message
...

Modern MS "70" in plastic is the greatest crock-of-****ae out there.
Beware, BEware, BEWARE!!!

oly

Speaking of which (plus your finding of a 2012-D shield cent in change),
can someone explain this?

A recent Coin Age dealer's listing had a graded 2011-D Shield Cent, "MS-67
red," at about $80+ (may even have been $100+).

Huh? I've not been paying close attention to availability and pricing news
for modern cents for a year or two, but this one really surprised me.
What's with the 2011-D cent going at such a whopping premium? Is this
going to be a genuine key issue, or is it just another example of dealers
hyping a numismatic molehill and inflating it to create a mountain-sized
mirage that will fade away after the bubble bursts?

On Apr 12, 9:29*pm, "mazorj" wrote:
"oly" wrote in message

...

Modern MS "70" in plastic is the greatest crock-of-****ae out there.
Beware, BEware, BEWARE!!!

oly

Speaking of which (plus your finding of a 2012-D shield cent in change),
can someone explain this?

A recent Coin Age dealer's listing had a graded 2011-D Shield Cent, "MS-67
red," at about $80+ (may even have been $100+).

Huh? *I've not been paying close attention to availability and pricing news
for modern cents for a year or two, but this one really surprised me.
What's with the 2011-D cent going at such a whopping premium? *Is this
going to be a genuine key issue, or is it just another example of dealers
hyping a numismatic molehill and inflating it to create a mountain-sized
mirage that will fade away after the bubble bursts?

It's the "rare-in-this-condition" slab game being played for the
umpteenth time. A search on ebay will show that "66" is dross and
"67" is great. oly

"oly" wrote in message
...
On Apr 12, 9:29 pm, "mazorj" wrote:
"oly" wrote in message

...

Modern MS "70" in plastic is the greatest crock-of-****ae out there.
Beware, BEware, BEWARE!!!

oly

Speaking of which (plus your finding of a 2012-D shield cent in change),
can someone explain this?

A recent Coin Age dealer's listing had a graded 2011-D Shield Cent,
"MS-67
red," at about $80+ (may even have been $100+).

Huh? I've not been paying close attention to availability and pricing
news
for modern cents for a year or two, but this one really surprised me.
What's with the 2011-D cent going at such a whopping premium? Is this
going to be a genuine key issue, or is it just another example of dealers
hyping a numismatic molehill and inflating it to create a mountain-sized
mirage that will fade away after the bubble bursts?

It's the "rare-in-this-condition" slab game being played for the
umpteenth time. A search on ebay will show that "66" is dross and
"67" is great. oly
=========================

Thanks. That was my first guess for it being an artificial marketing
gimmick. I just didn't think that they could be playing the "graders'
database scarcity" game so soon for a 2011 coin!

Every time I hear about a "rare-in-this-condition" deal for modern,
inexpensive pocket change, I wonder if there isn't some sharpster making a
quick killing by carefully touching up 68s or 69s or even 70s to downgrade
them to the hyped MS-67 (or whichever is the supposedly scarce entry). At
those mark-ups, it's even cost-effective to buy Mint or even Proof sets to
get the one coin you're going to touch up and downgrade.

Most serious collectors are informed enough to be on the lookout for coins
that have been touched up to improve their appearance or graded value; but
touching up to downgrade a coin probably never registers as a possibility
to be guarded against.

On Apr 13, 1:32*am, "mazorj" wrote:
"oly" wrote in message

....
On Apr 12, 9:29 pm, "mazorj" wrote:





"oly" wrote in message

....

Modern MS "70" in plastic is the greatest crock-of-****ae out there.
Beware, BEware, BEWARE!!!

oly

Speaking of which (plus your finding of a 2012-D shield cent in change),
can someone explain this?

A recent Coin Age dealer's listing had a graded 2011-D Shield Cent,
"MS-67
red," at about $80+ (may even have been $100+).

Huh? I've not been paying close attention to availability and pricing
news
for modern cents for a year or two, but this one really surprised me.
What's with the 2011-D cent going at such a whopping premium? Is this
going to be a genuine key issue, or is it just another example of dealers
hyping a numismatic molehill and inflating it to create a mountain-sized
mirage that will fade away after the bubble bursts?

It's the "rare-in-this-condition" slab game being played for the
umpteenth time. *A search on ebay will show that "66" is dross and
"67" is great. *oly
=========================

Thanks. *That was my first guess for it being an artificial marketing
gimmick. *I just didn't think that they could be playing the "graders'
database scarcity" game so soon for a 2011 coin!

Every time I hear about a "rare-in-this-condition" deal for modern,
inexpensive pocket change, I wonder if there isn't some sharpster making a
quick killing by carefully touching up 68s or 69s or even 70s to downgrade
them to the hyped MS-67 (or whichever is the supposedly scarce entry). *At
those mark-ups, it's even cost-effective to buy Mint or even Proof sets to
get the one coin you're going to touch up and downgrade.

Most serious collectors are informed enough to be on the lookout for coins
that have been touched up to improve their appearance or graded value; but
touching up to downgrade a coin probably never registers as a possibility
to be guarded against.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Well, no, in recent uncirculated cents, the big slabbers don't seem to
do over MS 67. You dont have to ruin a higher MS coin, since they
seemingly don't exist.

Now, Proof 69 or Proof 70 cent, the slabbers will do, but they seem to
be more "conservative" with the uncs because maybe they will still
change condition their color or somehow otherwise alter after being
slabbed. Something that might trigger a "guarantee" being honored at
some future time.

You can get slabbed MS 66 and Proof 69 much cheaper than the next
ultra-high grade up, if you gotta own the coin in some form besides
pocket change.

One also has to say when the presses are churning out 1200 coins per
minute and the cent coins get ejected into big tubs of coins, and then
being hauled in huge huge bags nowadays, and finally put into counting
and rolling machines at armoured car companies and banks, probably
nothing comes out perfect.

You might be the person who should buy the Whitman 'Red Book'
specialized Guide book on Lincoln Cents, a good $20 book. I own most
of this series, but not that one.

oly

"mazorj" wrote in message
...

"oly" wrote in message
...
On Apr 12, 9:29 pm, "mazorj" wrote:
"oly" wrote in message

...

Modern MS "70" in plastic is the greatest crock-of-****ae out there.
Beware, BEware, BEWARE!!!

oly

Speaking of which (plus your finding of a 2012-D shield cent in change),
can someone explain this?

A recent Coin Age dealer's listing had a graded 2011-D Shield Cent,
"MS-67
red," at about $80+ (may even have been $100+).

Huh? I've not been paying close attention to availability and pricing
news
for modern cents for a year or two, but this one really surprised me.
What's with the 2011-D cent going at such a whopping premium? Is this
going to be a genuine key issue, or is it just another example of dealers
hyping a numismatic molehill and inflating it to create a mountain-sized
mirage that will fade away after the bubble bursts?

It's the "rare-in-this-condition" slab game being played for the
umpteenth time. A search on ebay will show that "66" is dross and
"67" is great. oly
=========================

Thanks. That was my first guess for it being an artificial marketing
gimmick. I just didn't think that they could be playing the "graders'
database scarcity" game so soon for a 2011 coin!

Every time I hear about a "rare-in-this-condition" deal for modern,
inexpensive pocket change, I wonder if there isn't some sharpster making a
quick killing by carefully touching up 68s or 69s or even 70s to downgrade
them to the hyped MS-67 (or whichever is the supposedly scarce entry). At
those mark-ups, it's even cost-effective to buy Mint or even Proof sets to
get the one coin you're going to touch up and downgrade.

Most serious collectors are informed enough to be on the lookout for coins
that have been touched up to improve their appearance or graded value; but
touching up to downgrade a coin probably never registers as a possibility
to be guarded against.


The real "rare-in-this-condition" coins today are golden dollar coins in
VG-F condition. Don't be fooled by an artificially circulated one.

"oly" wrote in message
...
On Apr 13, 1:32 am, "mazorj" wrote:
"oly" wrote in message

...
On Apr 12, 9:29 pm, "mazorj" wrote:

"oly" wrote in message

...

Modern MS "70" in plastic is the greatest crock-of-****ae out there.
Beware, BEware, BEWARE!!!

oly

Speaking of which (plus your finding of a 2012-D shield cent in
change),
can someone explain this?

A recent Coin Age dealer's listing had a graded 2011-D Shield Cent,
"MS-67 red," at about $80+ (may even have been $100+).

Huh? I've not been paying close attention to availability and pricing
news
for modern cents for a year or two, but this one really surprised me.
What's with the 2011-D cent going at such a whopping premium? Is this
going to be a genuine key issue, or is it just another example of
dealers
hyping a numismatic molehill and inflating it to create a
mountain-sized
mirage that will fade away after the bubble bursts?

It's the "rare-in-this-condition" slab game being played for the
umpteenth time. A search on ebay will show that "66" is dross and
"67" is great. oly
=========================

Thanks. That was my first guess for it being an artificial marketing
gimmick. I just didn't think that they could be playing the "graders'
database scarcity" game so soon for a 2011 coin!

Every time I hear about a "rare-in-this-condition" deal for modern,
inexpensive pocket change, I wonder if there isn't some sharpster making
a
quick killing by carefully touching up 68s or 69s or even 70s to
downgrade
them to the hyped MS-67 (or whichever is the supposedly scarce entry). At
those mark-ups, it's even cost-effective to buy Mint or even Proof sets
to
get the one coin you're going to touch up and downgrade.

Most serious collectors are informed enough to be on the lookout for
coins
that have been touched up to improve their appearance or graded value;
but
touching up to downgrade a coin probably never registers as a possibility
to be guarded against.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -
========================

Well, no, in recent uncirculated cents, the big slabbers don't seem to
do over MS 67. You dont have to ruin a higher MS coin, since they
seemingly don't exist.

Now, Proof 69 or Proof 70 cent, the slabbers will do, but they seem to
be more "conservative" with the uncs because maybe they will still
change condition their color or somehow otherwise alter after being
slabbed. Something that might trigger a "guarantee" being honored at
some future time.

You can get slabbed MS 66 and Proof 69 much cheaper than the next
ultra-high grade up, if you gotta own the coin in some form besides
pocket change.

One also has to say when the presses are churning out 1200 coins per
minute and the cent coins get ejected into big tubs of coins, and then
being hauled in huge huge bags nowadays, and finally put into counting
and rolling machines at armoured car companies and banks, probably
nothing comes out perfect.
==========================

That's all true as far as you have stated it here; but there's no
requirement that the coin to be "downgraded" was already slabbed.

The distribution of grades among all coins of a given date and mint, in
this case including both the scarce slabbed examples of graded 67s and the
ones running in the wild as raw 66s, 67s, 68s and 69s, probably follows a
bell curve. That means that while it's extremely unlikely that a 70 would
last long in its perfect state, there are quite a few of the "dross 66
cents" out there, and then at least some surviving raw 68s and 69s to be
had by careful searchers of pocket change or in the more target-rich form
of Mint rolls and bags of the 2011-D cent. Probably not many, but at
mark-ups like these, you don't need to downgrade a ton of them to make a
good chunk of change by downgrading and flipping them over to
unsophisticated buyers at the height of the artificial bubble.

Bottom Line: My scenario is unlikely, I was just musing on a possble type
of scam. But to reprise the classic squelch (usually voiced with a
Brooklyn accent), "Hey, youse got a problem wid dat? Gedouttaheah! It
*could* happen!"

- mazorj
Part of my roots are planted where "A Tree Grows in Brooklyn"