Condition rarity vs numeric rarity

I was perusing a recent issue of Coin World and one of the ads struck me.
An early 50s Franklin half MS65 FBL sold for over $20K - about the same price as
a late 1790s dollar in VF.
I don't think the Franklin has as much upside as the dollar.
Frankly I don't believe ANY Franklin half is worth that kind of dough.
That made me dig out some old Red Books and sure enough, those coins that are
actual rarities (low mintage) have outperformed the common dates.
Of course, the red Book didn't/doesn't list by MS grade/FBL.
So, for your 20 grand, which coin would you rather have???

"Scurvy Dog" wrote in message
...
I was perusing a recent issue of Coin World and one of the ads struck me.
An early 50s Franklin half MS65 FBL sold for over $20K - about the same
price as a late 1790s dollar in VF.
I don't think the Franklin has as much upside as the dollar.
Frankly I don't believe ANY Franklin half is worth that kind of dough.
That made me dig out some old Red Books and sure enough, those coins that
are actual rarities (low mintage) have outperformed the common dates.
Of course, the red Book didn't/doesn't list by MS grade/FBL.
So, for your 20 grand, which coin would you rather have???


First, let me see if I can come up with $20 grand. I may have to sell one
of my MS70 Lincolns.

On Mar 7, 7:49*pm, "Scurvy Dog" wrote:
An early 50s Franklin half MS65 FBL sold for over $20K - about the same price as
a late 1790s dollar in VF.
So, for your 20 grand, which coin would you rather have???

I'd much rather have the 1790s dollar. I'm happy with my unslabbed F
to AU Franklins, nicer versions of any of them wouldn't be a
significant improvement to my collection (from my view) -- but a 1790s
dollar would be something my collection doesn't have.

"Bruce Remick" wrote in message
...

"Scurvy Dog" wrote in message
...
I was perusing a recent issue of Coin World and one of the ads struck me.
An early 50s Franklin half MS65 FBL sold for over $20K - about the same price
as a late 1790s dollar in VF.
I don't think the Franklin has as much upside as the dollar.
Frankly I don't believe ANY Franklin half is worth that kind of dough.
That made me dig out some old Red Books and sure enough, those coins that are
actual rarities (low mintage) have outperformed the common dates.
Of course, the red Book didn't/doesn't list by MS grade/FBL.
So, for your 20 grand, which coin would you rather have???


First, let me see if I can come up with $20 grand. I may have to sell one of
my MS70 Lincolns.

Selling one or two of those should put you on Easy Street. ;-)
Seriously though, irrespective of condition, I can't see how a modern coin like
the Lincoln cent with a mintage of over 100,000,000 can possibly be considered
"rare".
IMO condition rarity is a scam.

On Mar 7, 6:49*pm, "Scurvy Dog" wrote:
I was perusing a recent issue of Coin World and one of the ads struck me.
An early 50s Franklin half MS65 FBL sold for over $20K - about the same price as
a late 1790s dollar in VF.
I don't think the Franklin has as much upside as the dollar.
Frankly I don't believe ANY Franklin half is worth that kind of dough.
That made me dig out some old Red Books and sure enough, those coins that are
actual rarities (low mintage) have outperformed the common dates.
Of course, the red Book didn't/doesn't list by MS grade/FBL.
So, for your 20 grand, which coin would you rather have???

This response addresses a number of non-hobby considerations and even
a few hobby considerations:

Both the Franklin and the 1790s dollars seem very very fully priced at
this point in time. Owning either one, the non-hobby factors/ things
to worry about would be the potential downside risk(s) of your
invested principal, and the liquidity risk (how long would it take to
sell without taking a big haircut), in the event that you would ever
need to sell the piece.

Since 20 grand is still fifteen troy ounces of gold (probably closer
to 16 or 17), one good question might be would you rather have a wool
sock full of gold for your hard-earned buck, or just a modest sliver
of real shiny silver???

More and more, those of us who audit loan portfolios are seeing people
who have a good "bread and butter" business that has turned very
marginal. Even more, many of these folks also have some smaller side
businesses (often run by their wives and/or children) that have turned
cancerous. These folks aren't going to be spending on toys like they
did 2001-2007. No sirree. If this present reflationary "green
shoots" don't materialize, one big reason will be because this class
of businessmen are in deep doo-doo.

Somebody has to be making windfall profits (or at least they have to
have a supportive loan officer at the bank) to support investing in
fine arts and expensive collectables. I don't think we will see such
profits and such "conspicuous consumption" spending back to the
previously lofty levels for a quite a while to come.

As a "historic artifact", any U.S. coin from the 1790s in passable
condition beats a freaking Franklin half dollar.

oly

"Scurvy Dog" wrote in message
...

"Bruce Remick" wrote in message
...

"Scurvy Dog" wrote in message
...
I was perusing a recent issue of Coin World and one of the ads struck me.
An early 50s Franklin half MS65 FBL sold for over $20K - about the same
price as a late 1790s dollar in VF.
I don't think the Franklin has as much upside as the dollar.
Frankly I don't believe ANY Franklin half is worth that kind of dough.
That made me dig out some old Red Books and sure enough, those coins
that are actual rarities (low mintage) have outperformed the common
dates.
Of course, the red Book didn't/doesn't list by MS grade/FBL.
So, for your 20 grand, which coin would you rather have???


First, let me see if I can come up with $20 grand. I may have to sell
one of my MS70 Lincolns.

Selling one or two of those should put you on Easy Street. ;-)
Seriously though, irrespective of condition, I can't see how a modern coin
like the Lincoln cent with a mintage of over 100,000,000 can possibly be
considered "rare".
IMO condition rarity is a scam.

Wearing a collector's hat, I would always favor a classic coin over a modern
condition rarity of similar value. Wearing an investor's hat, I'd have to
study things more carefully. A Franklin going from face value to $20K in
less than 60 years probably isn't that much different from the performance
of whatever VF 1790's dollar you had in mind during the same period. The
trick for the investor though would be to predict their comparative
performance over the next few years. Anyone able to do that would have the
advantage over any of us here.

"oly" wrote in message
...
On Mar 7, 6:49 pm, "Scurvy Dog" wrote:
I was perusing a recent issue of Coin World and one of the ads struck me.
An early 50s Franklin half MS65 FBL sold for over $20K - about the same
price as
a late 1790s dollar in VF.
I don't think the Franklin has as much upside as the dollar.
Frankly I don't believe ANY Franklin half is worth that kind of dough.
That made me dig out some old Red Books and sure enough, those coins that
are
actual rarities (low mintage) have outperformed the common dates.
Of course, the red Book didn't/doesn't list by MS grade/FBL.
So, for your 20 grand, which coin would you rather have???

This response addresses a number of non-hobby considerations and even
a few hobby considerations:

Both the Franklin and the 1790s dollars seem very very fully priced at
this point in time. Owning either one, the non-hobby factors/ things
to worry about would be the potential downside risk(s) of your
invested principal, and the liquidity risk (how long would it take to
sell without taking a big haircut), in the event that you would ever
need to sell the piece..

Since 20 grand is still fifteen troy ounces of gold (probably closer
to 16 or 17), one good question might be would you rather have a wool
sock full of gold for your hard-earned buck, or just a modest sliver
of real shiny silver???

More and more, those of us who audit loan portfolios are seeing people
who have a good "bread and butter" business that has turned very
marginal. Even more, many of these folks also have some smaller side
businesses (often run by their wives and/or children) that have turned
cancerous. These folks aren't going to be spending on toys like they
did 2001-2007. No sirree. If this present reflationary "green
shoots" don't materialize, one big reason will be because this class
of businessmen are in deep doo-doo.

=============
But these people aren't the ones likely to be spending $20K on either
coin. Rather, it's those deep pockets folks who never seem to have to worry
about the economy who can buy the five and six figure coins, along with the
occasional #1 Batman or Superman comic when it becomes available.
=============

Somebody has to be making windfall profits (or at least they have to
have a supportive loan officer at the bank) to support investing in
fine arts and expensive collectables. I don't think we will see such
profits and such "conspicuous consumption" spending back to the
previously lofty levels for a quite a while to come.

=============
There are still loads of rich collectors who are immune from conditions
that affect the rest of us, and who will always be willing to spend six or
seven figures an a rare coin, painting, or classic car-- when they're not
out cruising in their private jet or 200' yacht. Apparently there are some
obsessed people out there who salivate over modern so-called condition
rarity coins, maybe with little concern about ever making a profit or what
others like us may think of their rationality.
=============

As a "historic artifact", any U.S. coin from the 1790s in passable
condition beats a freaking Franklin half dollar.
=============

I doubt that anyone who would spend $20K on a MS70 Franklin would
consider it a "historic artifact". An ego-booster, maybe.

On Sun, 07 Mar 2010 19:49:51 -0500, Scurvy Dog wrote:

I was perusing a recent issue of Coin World and one of the ads struck
me. An early 50s Franklin half MS65 FBL sold for over $20K - about the
same price as a late 1790s dollar in VF.

(Snip for brevity)

So, for your 20 grand, which coin would you rather have???

My local dealer has a 1795 3 Leaves $1 in VF35 for $6900, and a 1798 $1
in XF45 for $4750. So for 20 grand, I'd rather have a 1953-S MS-65 FBL
which is the only Franklin that sells at that price. I'd lose less money
on the flip.

I was offered such a '53s for $8000 in 2000. My reaction at the time was
the same as yours. I have little interest in the series, nor in registry
sets, and it would have been a bit of a budget buster. So I took a
pass. The coin has almost tripled in value since then, while non-FBL
copies have appreciated little.

Some of my other investments from that year, like gold bullion, worked
out even better. Others, like a couple of electronics stocks, not so
much :-(.

But it's always worth remembering that price is set by supply _and_
demand. There are some extremely low mintage coins that sell for silly
money. For example, earlier today I was looking at a 1908 Philippine/
U.S. 20-centavo piece slabbed by PCGS in Proof-63. The price in dollars,
(448) was less than the mintage (500). An 1861-O proof half dollar, with
a mintage of perhaps 4 pieces, sold for under $20,000 in 2002.

But with old coins, demand changes more frequently than supply. If that
same 1861-O PR-60 half came on the market today, it might sell for ten
times that.

For $20,000 today, I'd try to get a 1907 $20 High Relief in MS-63 and
settle for a nice MS-62. It's not a particularly rare coin, but one
which I feel is beautiful and will always be in demand.

--
Mike Benveniste -- (Clarification Required)
Amo conventum instituti. -- Artifex Hannibal

"mazorj" wrote in message
...
snipped

As to Chinese millionaires wanting minor American cow flops, that's why I
included the word "fad". If population rarity is a fad here, and given
how much of American culture is adopted overseas, I see no reason why it
couldn't happen among Far East nouveau rich too. It's amazing what goofy
things can become status symbols for those who suddenly find themselves
with more money than brains.

- mazorj the Latinate

Can you say "blue jeans"?

"Bruce Remick" wrote in message
...

"mazorj" wrote in message
...
snipped

As to Chinese millionaires wanting minor American cow flops, that's why I
included the word "fad". If population rarity is a fad here, and given
how much of American culture is adopted overseas, I see no reason why it
couldn't happen among Far East nouveau rich too. It's amazing what goofy
things can become status symbols for those who suddenly find themselves
with more money than brains.

- mazorj the Latinate

Can you say "blue jeans"?

Perzackly. Although jeans aren't in the $20k league, we have tons of
McMansions built in faux European styles because to many Americans who are
not secure in their architectural heritage, a Tudor or whatever connotes
class and sophistication and bestows a shallow but satisfying sense of
having joined the elite. Who knows, maybe some day there will be a proud
owner of a brand new replica 1950s 3-bedroom American ranch-style brick home
gloating at how he has one-upped the Chans or the Yumigatchis or the
al-Rashids next door.

Americans aren't the only ones susceptible to the "more money than brains"
syndrome. So I really wouldn't be surprised if a numerical rarity
collecting fad spreads to regions with a growing component of nouveau rich
looking for The Next Big Thing.