Future of MS70 and PF70 Coins???

Once it starts, the others will likely follow in order to compete,
and
before long the exclusivity of the MS70 grades will have become diluted
enough
to cause the lofty prices to fall.

This process is already well underway. ICG started the "everybody gets
a 70" craze five years ago when they arrived, and NGC (the last to play
the 70 game) has now started giving them out routinely. In some
issues,
the NGC 70 grade goes for not much more than PCGS 69.

The policies of the grading companies have had more influence on these
modern 70s than the actual numbers of coins in fine condition.

So the quest for perfect coins will continue, but the prices for them
will
undoubtedly fluctuate wildly in coming years. It's unsafe to buy them
unless you are just wealthy and want Registry bragging rights.

Regards,
Tom

"Scott Stevenson" wrote in message
...
On 28 Jan 2006 06:58:41 -0800, "Ira Stein" wrote:

Tom replies to the following query:


So what are some of your thoughts on the future of MS70 and PF70
coins? Is it a present day fad that will fade with time?



It's not a fad that will fade with time. Collectors have always and
will always pay a premium for coins in exceptional condidtion.

However, the market for modern-day coins in MS/PF 70 holders
is unstable because there is still a very large supply of unslabbed
coins out there, and the high premium prices is based on
scarcity. Nobody really knows the scarcity, and it depends
as much on policy decisions by slabbers as it does on the
number of "perfect" coins extant.

The registry set craze has fueled this market, but the absence
of reliable figures on the size of the supply makes it a very
risky market to play in.

For example, MS/PF 70 coins were quite scarce for a long
time, until a new slabber (ICG) suddenly appeared and
started putting them out in droves. Now the guy from ICG
is at ANACS, and they have suddenly discovered "perfect"
coins. The pops for moderns are exremely elastic.

It's very speculative to pay 5X-10X the 69 price for a coin
that could double it's population in the next few years.



I fully agree with what Tom has written here. I think it's an extremely
risky market and unlike, for example, a high grade 1918 or 1924 1c in
MS-66, where any discovery of large numbers of superb gems is not ever
likely to occur anymore. The literally millions of high grade MS-69/70
MS and Proofs of modern material that has NOT been submitted for
grading can have a major downward effect on the populations so graded
as more submissions are made. Huge price drops can and will occur.

I just wonder if we're going to see a soft landing, or if it's going
to be closer to what happened with some of the Morgans when the mint
released bags of them in the early 60's.

At some point, the people spending that kind of money are going to
figure out that there are probably more PF-70 2003-S Lincolns out
there than the total number of 1938 proof Lincolns.

take care,
Scott

More than once the Great, Wise, and Wonderful One has instructed me on how
it is desirable to not have one's hands full of superheated material when
the music stops. Some heed those words, some don't.

Mr. Jaggers

On 28 Jan 2006 06:58:41 -0800, "Ira Stein" wrote:

Tom replies to the following query:


So what are some of your thoughts on the future of MS70 and PF70
coins? Is it a present day fad that will fade with time?



It's not a fad that will fade with time. Collectors have always and
will always pay a premium for coins in exceptional condidtion.

However, the market for modern-day coins in MS/PF 70 holders
is unstable because there is still a very large supply of unslabbed
coins out there, and the high premium prices is based on
scarcity. Nobody really knows the scarcity, and it depends
as much on policy decisions by slabbers as it does on the
number of "perfect" coins extant.

The registry set craze has fueled this market, but the absence
of reliable figures on the size of the supply makes it a very
risky market to play in.

For example, MS/PF 70 coins were quite scarce for a long
time, until a new slabber (ICG) suddenly appeared and
started putting them out in droves. Now the guy from ICG
is at ANACS, and they have suddenly discovered "perfect"
coins. The pops for moderns are exremely elastic.

It's very speculative to pay 5X-10X the 69 price for a coin
that could double it's population in the next few years.



I fully agree with what Tom has written here. I think it's an extremely
risky market and unlike, for example, a high grade 1918 or 1924 1c in
MS-66, where any discovery of large numbers of superb gems is not ever
likely to occur anymore. The literally millions of high grade MS-69/70
MS and Proofs of modern material that has NOT been submitted for
grading can have a major downward effect on the populations so graded
as more submissions are made. Huge price drops can and will occur.

Many dealers make a huge market in these, but I will not sell these to
any customers of mine. The risk of burial in such condition "rarities'"
is far too large for my customers in my opinion for me to trade iin
these coins. Collect them if you will, but unless a high grade modern
Registry set is what you're after, I'd stick MS/PF- 68s or 69s. Those
are cheap by comparison, and I doubt most could tell the difference
between those coins and megbuck MS/PF 70s.

Ira

Actually, I think I mentioned I am not into collecting MS/PF70's. I
only have some as a result of submissions. My biggest surprise was a
2001-S Sacagawea that came back PF70. Even if I liked 70's more
there is no way I can afford it. The ones I have I will undoubtedly
be selling to pick up 69's (or submitting others I have).

I just never seem to get around very quickly to putting them up for
auction. So, just pondering if I should put forth more effort and
light a fire under my butt and get some auctions going.

I agree with most assessments, the odds of MS/PF70's going up in the
future is less than the odds of going down.

Thanks

-- Ron K

"Scott Stevenson" wrote in message
...
On 28 Jan 2006 06:58:41 -0800, "Ira Stein" wrote:

Tom replies to the following query:


So what are some of your thoughts on the future of MS70 and PF70
coins? Is it a present day fad that will fade with time?



It's not a fad that will fade with time. Collectors have always and
will always pay a premium for coins in exceptional condidtion.

However, the market for modern-day coins in MS/PF 70 holders
is unstable because there is still a very large supply of unslabbed
coins out there, and the high premium prices is based on
scarcity. Nobody really knows the scarcity, and it depends
as much on policy decisions by slabbers as it does on the
number of "perfect" coins extant.

The registry set craze has fueled this market, but the absence
of reliable figures on the size of the supply makes it a very
risky market to play in.

For example, MS/PF 70 coins were quite scarce for a long
time, until a new slabber (ICG) suddenly appeared and
started putting them out in droves. Now the guy from ICG
is at ANACS, and they have suddenly discovered "perfect"
coins. The pops for moderns are exremely elastic.

It's very speculative to pay 5X-10X the 69 price for a coin
that could double it's population in the next few years.



I fully agree with what Tom has written here. I think it's an extremely
risky market and unlike, for example, a high grade 1918 or 1924 1c in
MS-66, where any discovery of large numbers of superb gems is not ever
likely to occur anymore. The literally millions of high grade MS-69/70
MS and Proofs of modern material that has NOT been submitted for
grading can have a major downward effect on the populations so graded
as more submissions are made. Huge price drops can and will occur.

I just wonder if we're going to see a soft landing, or if it's going
to be closer to what happened with some of the Morgans when the mint
released bags of them in the early 60's.

At some point, the people spending that kind of money are going to
figure out that there are probably more PF-70 2003-S Lincolns out
there than the total number of 1938 proof Lincolns.

take care,
Scott

The sad thing is that, regardless of who you are or how adept you are at
grading, there is no way someone will pay an MS70 price for a raw coin you have
graded as MS70. So essentially, there's really no such thing as a "raw" MS70
coin. Slabbers call all the shots at this level. The rest of us just follow.

Bruce

I, too, have looked at many NGC PROOF 69s and some PR70s. I feel I can pick
out the features that make an NGC PR 70, though I have never put this to the
test. I probably should, I feel I am in on a trade secret.

I can say that PCGS, while tough on the Mint State 70s, is way too lax on
the MS69s. I've bought two that had contact marks easily visible to the
naked eye. I don't think a 69 should be like that.

My best MS eagle is actually an ICG MS70 I bought off the HSN. (No
kidding. This was my ONLY coin show purchase ever). It actually is perfect
even under a 10X loupe.

--Keith


wrote in message
...

"Alan Williams" wrote in message
...
...
They will be doing it without my cash. ;-) Ira's advice is something I
figured out for myself. The number of 'raw' modern proofs that would
slab at 70 is unknown, unknowable, and IMO, likely very large.
Certainly the 'unsubmitted population' is extremely large!

I've looked at a good many MS69 and 70 silver eagles. I don't trust the
grading at all in these upper ranges. Most (probably all) the NGC MS70
coins would grade PCGS 69. The PCGS MS69 doesn't mean much to me. There
are perfect coins with beautiful strikes, as well as dinged coins with
imperfections in the fields and poor strike, that are graded MS69. If
someone is buying MS69-70 modern coins, it would probably be best to get a
premium PCGS MS69. It should be as nice as the NGC MS70, but won't cost as
much.

Of course, if one wants the number 70 on a slab, NGC 70's are less
expensive than PCGS. I've never held a PCGS 70 coin in my hand. They must
be very rare. One thing PCGS can do to break the MS69 log jam is to start
grading more 70's and let the market settle. NGC does not have the problem
that PCGS creates for itself by not giving 70 grades. PCGS reserves 70 as
a prize, it seems. This is okay, but it does create the mentioned problems
with the 69 grade.

Anita

"fletch" wrote in message
.. .
I, too, have looked at many NGC PROOF 69s and some PR70s. I feel I can
pick out the features that make an NGC PR 70, though I have never put this
to the test. I probably should, I feel I am in on a trade secret.

I can say that PCGS, while tough on the Mint State 70s, is way too lax on
the MS69s. I've bought two that had contact marks easily visible to the
naked eye. I don't think a 69 should be like that....

Agreed -- the PCGS 69 category ends up being a catchall.

I sent some really nice silver eagles to PCGS last year. I thought they had
a good chance for MS70. They probably would have been NGC MS70. Coins could
not have been better struck and have no marks. They all came back MS69 (and
two came back badly dinged -- unnoticed before sending?). Disappointing, but
okay. I bought a few PCGS MS69's off eBay because I was curious to compare.
One of the coins had poor strike and dings. I would have given this coin an
MS67 at most. Others had waviness in the field and average strike. None of
the coins compared to the ones I sent in, but they had the same grade.

IMO, two details of silver eagles -- liberty's face and hands -- are
important in telling how good the strike is. I have the feeling that PCGS
graders may grade too many coins too quickly. The details take a moment to
visualize well. It is probably just easier to throw them in the 69 pile than
to take the time. I mean, they are only silver eagles :-S

Personally, I'm glad that many silver eagles are being encapsulated or left
in the roll. Silver eagles are beautiful coins that I'm sure someone in the
future will enjoy. It's too bad that many of our nicer coins have no
history, since they were never in circulation.

Anita