Advice sought: coin bull market

I got back into collecting in 2000, just before things started to heat up.
Now it's 2004 and the market seems to be moving to new highs. 18th century
type and high-end coins of all kinds have gone up by 50 percent or more.
The stuff I bought early on has really moved up.

I've never seen a bull market before. And there are some coins I could
NEVER part with. But ... is it time to sell now, and buy back when things
get cheaper? WILL they get cheaper? How long do you think this upswing
will last? Remember, I was out of the hobby between 1974 and 2000 and have
not been through a full cycle before. I'd hate to watch the value of my
stuff sliced in half.

Opinions greatly appreciated. Thanks!

--Keith
..

18th century
type and high-end coins of all kinds have gone up by 50 percent or more.
The stuff I bought early on has really moved up.


Good material to own.

is it time to sell now, and buy back when things
get cheaper? WILL they get cheaper?


Nobody knows the future of the coin
market, there are lots of predictions of
course.

If you are comfortable with the profit margin
you will make then I would say go ahead
and sell.

How long do you think this upswing
will last?


A couple of years at least. There will be
some wild swings in the more speculative
areas of course in that time period.

Key date coins in unc or higher circ
grades, early type coins should do
very well.

(just a prediction, not a guarantee).

"Keith Fletcher" wrote in message
...
I got back into collecting in 2000, just before things started to heat up.
Now it's 2004 and the market seems to be moving to new highs. 18th
century
type and high-end coins of all kinds have gone up by 50 percent or more.
The stuff I bought early on has really moved up.

I've never seen a bull market before. And there are some coins I could
NEVER part with. But ... is it time to sell now, and buy back when things
get cheaper?

If you know things will get cheaper, then I think it would be smart to sell
now, buy back later and pocket the difference.


WILL they get cheaper?

Ahhh, you don't know either. So, I am predicting a contiued upward
pressure on coins for at least the next 2-6 years. Of course, that is
entirely dependent on such things as world stability, the economy, natural
disasters, etc., etc. My predictions are qualified by this scenario; no
new serious war damage delivered to the US (sadly, I would not bet on this),
no catastrophic earthquakes or hurricanes, and a world that either
maintains or improves the degree of stability it now has ( I imagine there
would be few who would bet on this).


How long do you think this upswing
will last?

The state quarter program will continue to attract new collectors for the
duration of the program, even if only those who grow into the program (too
young to be interested when the program started, but coming of age and still
seeing new coins every few months). The quantity of new collectors will be
relatively huge each year, but, of course, many will tire of their new
interest and others will go no deeper into their new hobby than state
quarters. Still, the state quarter program will lure a small percentage
deeper into the hobby. The newbies will first be attracted to items such as
other circulating coin series, clad and silver proof sets, silver eagles,
and modern commemoratives. A very small percentage of new collectors will
eventually find their way to the obsolete series. But even in very small
numbers, an increase in demand will be offset by rising prices for those
coins whose supply is truly limited.

Still and yet, this can only happen if world economics and security does not
further deteriorate.

They say that what goes up must come down. However, today's peaks may be
the new valleys in the future of coin prices. Or, it may be that, depending
upon events beyond our control, you won't be able to give a coin away and
one will wonder if there is a bottom to the falling prices.

There. Now you have all the answers, just like me. Bill





Remember, I was out of the hobby between 1974 and 2000 and have
not been through a full cycle before. I'd hate to watch the value of my
stuff sliced in half.

Opinions greatly appreciated. Thanks!

--Keith
.

Keith Fletcher wrote:

I got back into collecting in 2000, just before things started to heat up.
Now it's 2004 and the market seems to be moving to new highs. 18th century
type and high-end coins of all kinds have gone up by 50 percent or more.
The stuff I bought early on has really moved up.

I've never seen a bull market before. And there are some coins I could
NEVER part with. But ... is it time to sell now, and buy back when things
get cheaper? WILL they get cheaper? How long do you think this upswing
will last? Remember, I was out of the hobby between 1974 and 2000 and have
not been through a full cycle before. I'd hate to watch the value of my
stuff sliced in half.

Opinions greatly appreciated. Thanks!

--Keith
.

I don't know that my opinion will be of any help to you. Coins are not
like T-Bills or Series I savings bonds or Mutual funds or shares of
stock or anything else that is *really* an investment.

If the aim is to *own coins* as a hobbyist, someone who wants to own
pieces of history, then I think there is little choice but to pay what
the market demands. If your aim is to *make money* in buying and selling
coins, then you are in a high risk zone.

Tastes change. Series go in and out of fashion. New hoards are found
(even at the Fed itself!) and the bottom drops out of an issue or
series. Distribution means everything in coin prices, IMO. See the 'San
Diego' Commem as a prime example. Then there are the factors like
average age of collectors, total number of collectors, overall economy,
inflation, estate assignment of collection, and a hundred others, all of
which have an impact, positive or negative, on coin values.

For myself, at least, my collection falls into two categories. There
are coins I own like my 1798 Cent and my Trade Dollar and my Commems and
my LINCOLNS that are likely CDH (Cold Dead Hand) items. I will not sell
them, I'll leave them to someone when I die. Then there are bullion
items, spare SAEs and common Morgans and Peace and coin silver that I
would certainly sell if I needed money or the price rose dramatically.
Some of my 'holdings' fall in between, like my 1999 Silver Proof set. I
paid $87 for it a couple years ago. If it goes to $300, I'd have to
consider peddling it, just based on how many socks I could buy for $300.
;-) On the other hand, my set of proofs 1999 to date would now be
missing 'the key date' and I'm not certain I want that kind of seller's
regret. It sounds like the same issue you may be dealing with regarding
your nice 19th and 18th Century Type coins. ;-/

Alan
'loves the hobby, tolerates the business'

On Wed, 21 Jan 2004 21:57:44 GMT, Keith Fletcher
wrote:

I got back into collecting in 2000, just before things started to heat
up.
Now it's 2004 and the market seems to be moving to new highs. 18th
century
type and high-end coins of all kinds have gone up by 50 percent or more.
The stuff I bought early on has really moved up.

I've never seen a bull market before. And there are some coins I could
NEVER part with. But ... is it time to sell now, and buy back when
things
get cheaper? WILL they get cheaper? How long do you think this upswing
will last? Remember, I was out of the hobby between 1974 and 2000 and
have
not been through a full cycle before. I'd hate to watch the value of my
stuff sliced in half.

Opinions greatly appreciated. Thanks!

If you buy appealing, nice for the grade, in demand coins (keys, older
type) then the value tends to go up over time regardless of market
conditions. Common coins like Morgan dollars, common 20th century coins
in upper grade plastic are the types of things that fluctuate more. There
are enough of them to mass market so when "investors" show up they are
quickly sold. When the "investors" lead the excess supply depresses the
prices again.

Opnion worth what you paid for it

"Keith Fletcher" wrote in message
...
I got back into collecting in 2000, just before things started to heat up.
Now it's 2004 and the market seems to be moving to new highs. 18th
century
type and high-end coins of all kinds have gone up by 50 percent or more.
The stuff I bought early on has really moved up.

I've never seen a bull market before. And there are some coins I could
NEVER part with. But ... is it time to sell now, and buy back when things
get cheaper? WILL they get cheaper? How long do you think this upswing
will last? Remember, I was out of the hobby between 1974 and 2000 and
have
not been through a full cycle before. I'd hate to watch the value of my
stuff sliced in half.

Opinions greatly appreciated. Thanks!

--Keith

Sell them on E-Bay if you got the guts to.
Bidiots are driving up prices due to many collectors being able to find the
coins they need very easily on E-bay. Beats driving all over the country
looking for rare key dates or coins to finish your collection of certain
types. I've seen some coins going for well over what they are worth on the
net. Just remember that worldwide there's only about 2% of all computer
owners who have internet access. Could be a loooong time before the bidiots
are all done finding what they are looking for.
Of course, if they up and decide to start taxing internet goods you might
see the bottom drop out from all internet sales--so there's that to worry
about too.
Personally I'd never sell something worth big bucks to a total stranger that
I can't see in front of me with cash in thier hand. Internet fraud is now
the numero uno crime so there's that too.

Thanks, all. Some good advice here.

My usual routine for selling coins is to go through my collection and pick
eight or ten that I can part with. I put them in a special box, scan them
in and adjust the scans in Photoshop to match what the coins look like in my
hand. I type up a description in Word for eBay. I get to the last step of
the listing process, look at the coins in question, say 'screw it. I'm not
selling these, NO WAY'! Put the coins back in the box and go to bed.

Funny thing is, when I do sell things, I usually feel really good about
making someone happy. The coins I part with are always nice, I've even sold
some at a huge loss around Xmas and enjoyed it! (Yes there IS sometimes a
Santa Clause in coins -- and that's me!).

Cases in point:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll...m=220940511 7

and

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll...m=2208696 904



--K

"Keith Fletcher" wrote:
I got back into collecting in 2000, just before things started to heat up.
Now it's 2004 and the market seems to be moving to new highs. 18th century
type and high-end coins of all kinds have gone up by 50 percent or more.
The stuff I bought early on has really moved up.

I've never seen a bull market before. And there are some coins I could
NEVER part with. But ... is it time to sell now, and buy back when things
get cheaper? WILL they get cheaper? How long do you think this upswing
will last? Remember, I was out of the hobby between 1974 and 2000 and have
not been through a full cycle before. I'd hate to watch the value of my
stuff sliced in half.

It's impossible to time the market, and as has been pointed out in RCC
before, while many coins meet the definition of "investment" (expected
to increase in value), coins compare poorly to traditional financial
investments.

Caveat aside, here are a few thoughts based on the specifics you
stated. Any coins you are holding essentially for their investment
value alone you should sell. If your goal is to maximize your returns,
buy diversified financial investments; if your goal is to maximize the
overall "value" of your coin collection, buy more of those "coins I
could NEVER part with". Whatever it is about those coins is what you
really want, and would be a superior use of discretionary funds.

As to the timing your divestments, you could either sell all in the
short term or "average" your way out of your holdings, selling some
portion each month over a period of months or years. The former gives
you a relatively certain and fixed gain; the latter allows you to
capture a portion of the market's potential upside, while risking some
of the market's downside potential. If you're not sure, err on the
side of selling all now.

--Chris