It happened again!

Today I received the latest issue of Coin World, with the magazine Coin
Values attached. I usually check a few items that are on my want list, just
to see what I'm up against.

One of the items I checked was a 1796 Draped Bust, Small Eagle quarter in
VG. I was stunned. Last issue it listed at $8000. This issue it lists at
$15,000. I then visited the website and found the following:

From 1/31/00 through 6/2/03 it listed at $6250.
From 6/9/03 through 1/31/05 it listed at $8000.
From 2/7/05 through today it lists at $15,000.

The point of this post is to solicit opinions or observations regarding
these sudden big increases followed by a long period of stability, only to
be punctuated once again by a huge increase, the latest amounting to a 87.5%
increase in one fell swoop. Coins don't increase in value that way, but
rather, it is a gradual rise from transaction to transaction, day to day,
week to week, etc. Why doesn't a weekly/monthly publication reflect the
little-by-little advance of coin values?

James
'experiencing severe sticker shock'

"James Higby" heezerbumfrool[at]hotmail[dot]com wrote in message
...
Today I received the latest issue of Coin World, with the magazine Coin
Values attached. I usually check a few items that are on my want list,
just to see what I'm up against.

One of the items I checked was a 1796 Draped Bust, Small Eagle quarter in
VG. I was stunned. Last issue it listed at $8000. This issue it lists
at $15,000. I then visited the website and found the following:

From 1/31/00 through 6/2/03 it listed at $6250.
From 6/9/03 through 1/31/05 it listed at $8000.
From 2/7/05 through today it lists at $15,000.

The point of this post is to solicit opinions or observations regarding
these sudden big increases followed by a long period of stability, only to
be punctuated once again by a huge increase, the latest amounting to a
87.5% increase in one fell swoop. Coins don't increase in value that way,
but rather, it is a gradual rise from transaction to transaction, day to
day, week to week, etc. Why doesn't a weekly/monthly publication reflect
the little-by-little advance of coin values?

James
'experiencing severe sticker shock'

It is my understanding that coins that are traded on relatively few
occasions can indeed show large price fluctuations. I am no expert on a
1796 quarter, but I suspect it trades somewhat less than a1964 proof set.
With the tremendous auction prices on rare coins that have been reported
over the last number of months, I think the fantastic price increases you
see probably reflect the reality of the rare coin market.

Most coins, the common coins, do move up or down in price much more slowly.

Bill

On Tue, 1 Feb 2005 20:31:50 -0600, "James Higby"
heezerbumfrool[at]hotmail[dot]com wrote:

Coins don't increase in value that way, but
rather, it is a gradual rise from transaction to transaction, day to day,
week to week, etc. Why doesn't a weekly/monthly publication reflect the
little-by-little advance of coin values?

Coins do not demonstrate any increase in value until there is an
actual transaction at a higher price than the last transaction.
However, the editors of the price guides like to GUESS what the price
would be on this-or-that rare item that rarely trades, in lieu of an
actual sale as a basis. If it is a responsible editor, the GUESS in a
conservative one.

A coin such as the 1796 Quarter is rarely traded. Moreover, the date
is (relatively speaking) loaded with problem circulated pieces in very
low grades. So, when an actual transaction occurs on a sound specimen,
the price is often well advanced over the conservative guess found in
the price guide. So, having a sound basis, the editor can raise the
price guidance to a demonstrable level.

BLReed

To e-mail me, remove the obvious spam trap.
For collector coins and supplies at fair prices: http://tinyurl.com/pt9r
Cool things and Bust Coin Forum: http://www.byronreed.com

For a coin that might trade only once or twice a year, indeed such
big changes are likely, because there
have been no trades during the period where the market is generally
rising.
"Bill Krummel" wrote in message
...

"James Higby" heezerbumfrool[at]hotmail[dot]com wrote in message
...
Today I received the latest issue of Coin World, with the
magazine Coin Values attached. I usually check a few items that
are on my want list, just to see what I'm up against.

One of the items I checked was a 1796 Draped Bust, Small Eagle
quarter in VG. I was stunned. Last issue it listed at $8000.
This issue it lists at $15,000. I then visited the website and
found the following:

From 1/31/00 through 6/2/03 it listed at $6250.
From 6/9/03 through 1/31/05 it listed at $8000.
From 2/7/05 through today it lists at $15,000.

The point of this post is to solicit opinions or observations
regarding these sudden big increases followed by a long period of
stability, only to be punctuated once again by a huge increase,
the latest amounting to a 87.5% increase in one fell swoop.
Coins don't increase in value that way, but rather, it is a
gradual rise from transaction to transaction, day to day, week to
week, etc. Why doesn't a weekly/monthly publication reflect the
little-by-little advance of coin values?

James
'experiencing severe sticker shock'

It is my understanding that coins that are traded on relatively
few occasions can indeed show large price fluctuations. I am no
expert on a 1796 quarter, but I suspect it trades somewhat less
than a1964 proof set. With the tremendous auction prices on rare
coins that have been reported over the last number of months, I
think the fantastic price increases you see probably reflect the
reality of the rare coin market.

Most coins, the common coins, do move up or down in price much
more slowly.

Bill

How has the Coin Dealer Newsletter Bid/Ask price changed in the same time
period?
Tom DeLorey
..
Subject: It happened again!
From: Byron L. Reed
Date: 2/1/2005 10:26 PM Central Standard Time
Message-id:

On Tue, 1 Feb 2005 20:31:50 -0600, "James Higby"
heezerbumfrool[at]hotmail[dot]com wrote:

Coins don't increase in value that way, but
rather, it is a gradual rise from transaction to transaction, day to day,
week to week, etc. Why doesn't a weekly/monthly publication reflect the
little-by-little advance of coin values?

Coins do not demonstrate any increase in value until there is an
actual transaction at a higher price than the last transaction.
However, the editors of the price guides like to GUESS what the price
would be on this-or-that rare item that rarely trades, in lieu of an
actual sale as a basis. If it is a responsible editor, the GUESS in a
conservative one.

A coin such as the 1796 Quarter is rarely traded. Moreover, the date
is (relatively speaking) loaded with problem circulated pieces in very
low grades. So, when an actual transaction occurs on a sound specimen,
the price is often well advanced over the conservative guess found in
the price guide. So, having a sound basis, the editor can raise the
price guidance to a demonstrable level.

BLReed

To e-mail me, remove the obvious spam trap.
For collector coins and supplies at fair prices: http://tinyurl.com/pt9r
Cool things and Bust Coin Forum: http://www.byronreed.com








TomDeLorey
-
"America, Home Of The Maroon Presidency!"

The last two Graysheets I purchased show a significant price increase
for the 1796 quarter in VG. 5/28/04 has this at $6000 bid, $6700 ask,
and 1/28/05 has it at $9.000 bid, $10,000 ask. Since this coin is not
a generic commodity, sheet prices may be meaningless.

On Tue, 01 Feb 2005 22:26:30 -0600, Byron L. Reed
wrote:

On Tue, 1 Feb 2005 20:31:50 -0600, "James Higby"
heezerbumfrool[at]hotmail[dot]com wrote:

Coins don't increase in value that way, but
rather, it is a gradual rise from transaction to transaction, day to day,
week to week, etc. Why doesn't a weekly/monthly publication reflect the
little-by-little advance of coin values?

Coins do not demonstrate any increase in value until there is an
actual transaction at a higher price than the last transaction.
However, the editors of the price guides like to GUESS what the price
would be on this-or-that rare item that rarely trades, in lieu of an
actual sale as a basis. If it is a responsible editor, the GUESS in a
conservative one.

A coin such as the 1796 Quarter is rarely traded. Moreover, the date
is (relatively speaking) loaded with problem circulated pieces in very
low grades. So, when an actual transaction occurs on a sound specimen,
the price is often well advanced over the conservative guess found in
the price guide. So, having a sound basis, the editor can raise the
price guidance to a demonstrable level.

Kind of reminds me of a rare painting. You always wonder who in their
right mind would pay a million dollars for a painting that sold for
1/2 of a million a year or two ago. I guess the answer is,,, the
person who plans on selling it in a year or two for 1 1/2 million.

Ron

"Ron" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 01 Feb 2005 22:26:30 -0600, Byron L. Reed
wrote:

On Tue, 1 Feb 2005 20:31:50 -0600, "James Higby"
heezerbumfrool[at]hotmail[dot]com wrote:

Coins don't increase in value that way, but
rather, it is a gradual rise from transaction to transaction, day to
day,
week to week, etc. Why doesn't a weekly/monthly publication reflect the
little-by-little advance of coin values?

Coins do not demonstrate any increase in value until there is an
actual transaction at a higher price than the last transaction.
However, the editors of the price guides like to GUESS what the price
would be on this-or-that rare item that rarely trades, in lieu of an
actual sale as a basis. If it is a responsible editor, the GUESS in a
conservative one.

A coin such as the 1796 Quarter is rarely traded. Moreover, the date
is (relatively speaking) loaded with problem circulated pieces in very
low grades. So, when an actual transaction occurs on a sound specimen,
the price is often well advanced over the conservative guess found in
the price guide. So, having a sound basis, the editor can raise the
price guidance to a demonstrable level.

Kind of reminds me of a rare painting. You always wonder who in their
right mind would pay a million dollars for a painting that sold for
1/2 of a million a year or two ago. I guess the answer is,,, the
person who plans on selling it in a year or two for 1 1/2 million.

Ron

Or like the Coin Dealer A who proudly announce his latest purchases at the
XYZ Coin Show in flashy trade paper ads, and will now immediately offer
these same coins to you at even higher prices. Dealer B buys one for a
potential client, receives the coin, submits it to ABCD grading service in
hope of a higher grade. He doesn't get the upgrade, but he raises the
coin's price/value to reflect the money he just lost on grading fees and
two-way shipping/insurance (or maybe he even dares to try once more for that
higher grade), plus a percentage for profit. He then sells the coin to
Collector D. Coin News trade paper picks up on the transaction. Meanwhile,
that identical $500 coin resting in your safe box has just increased in book
value to $650.

Bruce

---snip---

Or like the Coin Dealer A who proudly announce his latest purchases at the
XYZ Coin Show in flashy trade paper ads, and will now immediately offer
these same coins to you at even higher prices. Dealer B buys one for a
potential client, receives the coin, submits it to ABCD grading service in
hope of a higher grade. He doesn't get the upgrade, but he raises the
coin's price/value to reflect the money he just lost on grading fees and
two-way shipping/insurance (or maybe he even dares to try once more for that
higher grade), plus a percentage for profit. He then sells the coin to
Collector D. Coin News trade paper picks up on the transaction. Meanwhile,
that identical $500 coin resting in your safe box has just increased in book
value to $650.

Until the hype dies,,,,, sometimes.

Ron