On Thu, 3 Jan 2008 16:13:30 -0800 (PST), "Tom Sr."
wrote:

On Jan 3, 3:11 pm, DeserTBoB wrote:
Here's my take at Iowa, although I'm not betting the farm on it...the
race is still wide open even as the caucuses open:
Democratic winner: Clinton (or possibly Edwards)
Republican winner: Huckabee
Out of contention by New Hampshi
Biden, Dodd, Richardson, Thompson, Paul, Hunter.


Interesting comments.

I doubt Huckabee will survive long in the Primaries. He'll be way
behind in any of the New Hamsphire vote and I suspect Super-Tuesday
will kill him, if he isn't already dead in the water by then.

-Tom Sr. snip

Agreed. The stories I got out of Iowa tonight a

1.) Record youth turnout at the Dem caucuses, and record turnout by
all Democrats. That played well for Obama, not-so-hot for Edwards and
badly for Clinton, who needed the middle-aged and older female vote
that just didn't coalesce for her, and who went for...get
this...Obama! The real worry for Hillary isn't Obama, proper...rather
it's that Edwards beat her, even if only by a nose. Lesson: Hillary's
whole campaign needs to be retooled..."experience" doesn't work
anymore, neither does her being a "change" agent. Of course, this is
only IOWA...49 states left, not to mention "Tsunami Tuesday." Also,
don't EVER forget..."Comeback Kid" Clinton LOVES to run as an underdog
and so, naturally, does she. Bill has been a genius in working the
"underdog" spot in every election he's ever been in, and yes...he's
very active in Hillary's campaign strategy.

2.) 60% of ALL Republican caucusers were self-styled "evangelicals."
If you follow the underlying Huckabee logic, he should have run the
table, but he didn't. Telling is that 14% of "evangelicals" went for
Romney! Enjoy it now, Huckleberry...America's not ready for yet
another "talk to God" guy in the White House...not to mention one who
resembles Gomer Pyle a bit too much for comfort.

3.) BIG news of the GOP: Guiliani only pulled 3%! 3%!!!! Even Ron
Paul beat him! So much for his "name recognition" and being
"America's mayor." Yoo hoo, Rootie Tootie...it's not working anymore.
Guiliani thinks that firing up late (in Florida, where he thinks all
the snowbird retirees from NYC will all flock to him) he can just
assume the top slot from there into "Tsunami Tuesday," but that
strategy could be his immediate undoing. Mega-advantage: McCain, who
may take New Hampshire and has already announced he'll be going, not
to South Carolina, where the churchers will drool over Huckabee, but
Michigan, where he can bury Romney on his home turf. Should McCain
clean Romney's clock in MI, he can then kick Giuliani out of the #1
spot in the national polls...which Giuliani's been doing to himself
just in the last couple of weeks anyway...and thus out of the box on
"Tsunami Tuesday."

4.) Overall: BOTH parties are sick and tired of the status quo. Bush
has destroyed the GOP machine that used to anoint their nominees prior
to ANY primaries. "Experience" also isn't playing well to GOP voters
anymore, just as it backfired on Hillary in Iowa. I mean, look at all
the "experience" that Dumbsfeld and Cheney have, and they, along with
their addled-brained boss, have almost tanked the whole country! Same
works against Hillary, whose refusal to abandon her Iraq position came
back to bite her in the fanny. Both Huckabee and Obama, for their
respective parties, represent a complete "throw the bums out"
attitude. This, however, will ultimately benefit McCain on the GOP
side, but who gets the bow on the Dem side depends solely on how much
overhauling of Clinton gets done by "Tsunami Tuesday." Edwards showed
tonight that he can indeed cash in on the "change" platform, but he'd
better be prepared to take on Obama head to head, NOT Hillary.

Early picks in NH: Obama for the Dems, McCain for the GOP, but
anything can happen in a week! Romney may unleash robotic Mormons
into every nook and cranny of the state this weekend, so who knows?
One thing's for sure...for McCain to win in NH, he's got to stop
hemorrhaging votes of the "indies" to Obama; else, Romney gets the
win. He can do that now only by painting Obama as a "babe in the
woods" compared to his own long Senate career as an "outsider," and he
definitely has those credentials.