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Old January 3rd 08, 09:11 PM posted to alt.collecting.8-track-tapes,alt.politics,alt.politics.republican,alt.politics.democrats,alt.fan.rush-limbaugh
DeserTBoB
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Default Let the caucus circus begin!

Here's my take at Iowa, although I'm not betting the farm on it...the
race is still wide open even as the caucuses open:

Democratic winner: Clinton (or possibly Edwards)

Republican winner: Huckabee

Out of contention by New Hampshi

Biden, Dodd, Richardson, Thompson, Paul, Hunter.

Rationale: Clinton's been picking up the undecideds, and "soft"
support for Obama is eroding. Edwards, though, has the wind of
momentum behind him going into caucus day. Turnout is crucial for
Obama, and he might not get all he needs of first timers to put him
over, while ****ed off Maytag employees and union members for Edwards
have been working very hard, as have Hillary's people, to boost their
core turnout bases. BIG negative for Obama: "Oprahfest," which turns
out to have turned OFF as many potential supporters as it was supposed
to have turned ON. Oprah's more polarizing than Hillary could ever
be, and fawning housefraus who love her are more than offset by others
who cannot STAND her.

The BIG battle in New Hampshire is a weird one fostered by New
Hampshire's wacky "open primary for independents only" system. Now,
we have Obama fighting for votes directly against McCain, of all
people! This could skew New Hampshire results to the point of
irrelevance as far as the party nominations go, but would give McCain
some badly needed fuel to burn into South Carolina, and could give
Obama a lift after a probable loss to Clinton (or Edwards) in Iowa.
Right now, Romney's the GOP favorite in New Hampshire, with Clinton
back to leading Obama...but that's only among party regulars. Once
you throw the independents into the fray, things get murky, although
it does make McCain a contender again, if a weak one. Huckabee won't
even come close in New Hampshire, and he's already in retrograde in
Iowa, but may win there anyway, due to the robotic churcher vote.
Those Episcopalians and Congregationalists in New England will have
nothing of some southern preacher in THEIR neck o' the woods...ayuh!

An Edwards win in Iowa could be parlayed into big news for him if he
takes South Carolina, where he's got the home state advantage. The
GOP in SC is nothing but chaos, providing yet another opening for
McCain. Romney and Giuliani are both sinking there, where they're
duking it out with Huckabee over the churchers. A McCain win in SC
will do the greatest damage to Romney, who was hoping to take the
state in a cake walk after a big, paid-for win in New Hampshire.

The sad fact of our flawed system is that we'll lose two excellent
candidates, Joe Biden (D-DE) and Chris Dodd (D-CT). Both are probably
the best qualified in foreign and defense policy to hold office, but
somehow never got what Nixon once called "the big bow" from the party
or the public. You have to throw Richardson in there for
qualifications, too, but he's just plain unelectable. The media's
probably as much to blame for this as is the DNC, but at least we'll
still have both of them in the Senate after the dust stops blowing. My
gut tells me Richardson will wind up in a Cabinet post (his forte)
shortly after the Democratic win in November.

Over on the other side, the GOP doesn't lose much, if anything.
Paul...tin foil hats, freemason demons and black choppers.
Hunter...California Republican Assembly-favored whack job and defense
contractor shill who probably won't even win reelection in his own
district. Tancredo at least had the sense to get out before getting
steamrollered.

As far as the general goes, voters favor "any Democrat" over "any
Republican" by almost a 2/3 majority...big trouble for the GOP, AND
big trouble for them "down ticket" for the Congressional and Senate
races. For once, whack job Pat Buchanan may be right in
prognosticating that the GOP will cede all control of the House for
many years to come. I don't think the Dems can take cloture-proof
control of the Senate (maybe in the mid-terms), but they'll easily
pick up 5, and perhaps 6, seats. With that, there will be enough
leverage against northeastern and western Republican senators to
provide a foil against right wing filibusters by wacky southerners and
Texans.

PREDICTION: Dick Cheney will be indicted by Justice over "Plamegate"
some time in '08, and will do a Nixonian stonewall, citing "executive
privilege"...which he doesn't even have!
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