On Jul 7, 7:28 am, "Bruce Remick" wrote:
"oly" wrote in message

ups.com...





On Jul 6, 10:35 pm, (Scott
Stevenson) wrote:
On Fri, 6 Jul 2007 20:03:45 -0400, "Bruce Remick"
wrote:

"oly" wrote in message
roups.com...
On Jul 6, 11:52 am, "Bruce Remick" wrote:
"oly" wrote in message

The coming financial storm is still percolating at the horizon, but
the losses already being experienced in the bond market and real
estate market are real enough.

I don't doubt any of what you say, but I've lived through many economic
cycles and I don't see anything I should worry about.

Look at what the 10 year Treasury Note yield is now. Forty-five days
ago it was 4.90%; now it is 5.20%. That sounds small, but it
represents a Titanic shift in the expectations of bond traders, banks,
insurnace companies and other people who are "in the know".

Obviously I'm not "in the know" so to speak. So what you are reporting
is
simply economic dogma to me. What happens at those levels has never had
a
serious affect on my personal situation.

Based upon what you tell me here, you might need to hedge some against
future inflation. With the Goldman Sachs boys in control of the
Treasury, and "Helicopter Ben" Bernake at the helm of the FRB, the
chances that the Wall Street insiders will be bailed out at the
expense of future high inflation is very likely.

Again, I don't worry. When Wall St gets excited about inflation or
unemployment rising or falling a tenth of a percent, it has no bearing
on my
daily life. Whether I were working or not, the unemployment rate would
be
meaningless to me personally. In times of inflation, that means I'll
get a
greater cost of living raise in my pension each January.

Remember, it was the military men and the babushkas on fixed pensions
who got nailed to the wall in the former Soviet Union, when its
currency went to pot after 1989. Same thing in Weimar Germany in 1919
to 1923, although those old ladies weren't, of course, called
babushkas.

I would hardly equate our projected economic situation in the US to that
of
the former USSR or to post-WW I Germany. Maybe I'm optimistic and a
realist, but I like it that way. Less stressful, not always worrying
about
the sky falling.

Bruce,

I think it's that you've been around long enough to know that
there's been "proof" of the impending economic collapse for decades.

A quick google search for "coming depression" plus just about any
post-war year will show you articles (or books) from "experts"
explaining why the country is just days away from food lines, mass
starvation, and roving bands of gangs coming to kill you and steal
your drinking water.

Or, as they said on an episode of "West Wing"--"Economists were put
on earth to make psychics look good"

take care,
Scott- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

If you care to ignore what has happened in the U.S. bond market in the
last forty-five days, well, it's (or it was) your money.

The bond market suggests that the continually declining interest rates
of the last 25 years are a thing of the past. That's a big deal.

oly

Y'know Oly, I had no idea anything scary was happening in the US Bond market
or that continually declining interest rates have come to an end. Is all
this supposed to have changed my life? Are you implying that if interest
rates begin to rise, they won't ever come down again? I've been hearing
this doomsday stuff all my life. I recall at least 50 years of angst over
our "fiat dollar", yet I've never felt an impact, if ever there was one.
Something is always "coming soon". If economics was such an exact science,
we'd only need one economist.

Bruce- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Ignorance is bliss.

oly